Tropical Depression Ida

The month of November is typically quiet in the tropics for number of reasons. The upper level winds become more hostile, keeping systems form forming. Water temperatures begin to fall below 82 degrees over much of the Atlantic Basin. And we see more dry air that can inhibit warm cored systems. Despite all of this, we have Ida.

Ida was briefly a hurricane this morning but is now rapidly weakening as a depression over eastern Nicaragua. The system will remain over land for the next 24 hours and will continue to weaken. It is possible that Ida will regenerate into a Tropical Storm in the Northwest Caribbean Sea on Saturday as it lifts northward. Water temperatures are near 84 degrees, plenty warm to support a tropical cyclone. However, the long period of time on land may disrupt the inner mechanics of this system.

Also, Ida would have to deal with moderate southwesterly wind shear in the northwest Caribbean. If the system defies climatology and is not picked up by the westerlies by mid week, you will find it reassuring to know that the water temps in the northern Gulf are below 80 degrees and an approaching system would weaken as it approached our area.

So there is plenty reason for us not to be worried about Ida. Here’s the bottom line. We could see tides above normal due to the pressure gradient involving low pressure in the S’west Gulf and Ida, and a strong ridge off North Carolina by Monday. We also could get quite a bit of rain next week. But, I do not expect a significant tropical system making landfall here with this situation.