Tropical Threat…June 25th, 2010 at 9:47 pm by Jason Smith under FOX10 News, FOX10 Outdoors, FOX10 Weather
T.D. One should become Tropical Storm Alex tonight or Saturday. This feature will have a short opportunity to strengthen before hitting Mexico Sunday. Upper level winds, atmospheric moisture, and water temperatures all promote strengthening in the short term.
The system should weaken over the Yucatan on Sunday and head back over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Two scenarios are possible with the future forecast track once it gets back into the Gulf. Several reliable models take the system west towards Mexico or south Texas. Or, an unusual frontal system may track through our area and stall in the northern Gulf. This feature would steer the system towards the northern Gulf Coast.
If a system makes landfall in Louisiana, Mississippi, or Alabama… the impacts would be severe due to the large amount of oil off our beaches.
The forecast is for the system to remain a tropical storm. But, even a weak storm would bring higher tides and rough seas.
If the system takes a westward track into Texas, then we would see some swells and an increase s’east breeze. This would be a much better scenario for us.
Saturday: In Caribbean, likely a Tropical Storm
Sunday: Over the Yucatan, as a Depression
Sunday Night/Monday: Emerges into the Gulf as a Depression
Tuesday: A Tropical Storm in the Gulf
Wednesday/Thursday/Friday: Possible Landfall, most likely as a tropical storm