Active Tropics!

Gulf Upper Low; Bahamas’ Disturbance

TS Florence

TS Ernesto

Ernesto Models

So much activity in the tropics! We have four areas were tracking, two of which are named systems at this point…

GULF OF MEXICO AND BAHAMA’S DISTURBANCE
First let’s start in the Gulf. There is an Upper-Level Low spinning and creating a lot of rain and storminess off the Louisiana coast. Tropical systems don’t like upper-level lows because they create too much shear, but these systems can create a lot of rain when they have tropical moisture to deal with and that’s what this one will do just to the west of us.
In the Bahamas, is disturbance 91L. This is a weak, poorly organized system that is spreading rain into East Florida. Since this system is so disorganized the models can’t get a handle on what it’s going to do. Some take it north along Florida’s East Coast. Some carry it across Florida into the Northern Gulf. Whichever way it goes, this storm is unlikely to grow into anything significant, but could bring us more rain early next week if it tracks towards us.

TS FLORENCE
Tropical Storm Florence developed quickly from a tropical wave off the African coast and is now moving due west in the far Atlantic. Further development will be slow due to dry air wrapping into the storm and strong wind shear in the upper levels. The forecast is for this storm to eventually make a move more to the northwest. It’s unlikely this one will make it into the Gulf, but folks on the East Coast will have to monitor it going into next weekend.

AND THEN THERE WAS ERNESTO…
Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to look more ferocious than it is as it tracks through the Eastern Caribbean. Although shear is low and water temperatures are warm, dry air has been wrapping into this system limiting it’s strengthening. Because of this, the models have very little grip on the forecast strength of this storm and this is very important for where it will ultimately go. Check out the model tracks. They are pretty consistent on taking Ernesto to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico early Wednesday morning… It’s after that the uncertainty comes into play. Essentially, if Ernesto is weak it will likely strike the southern Yucatan and fizzle out, but if Ernesto grows into a hurricane it’s more likely the steering flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere will cause it to strike the northern Yucatan and then hold together into the southern Gulf where it could possibly threaten our area by late in the week. Regardless of what happens we have time here to watch, track, and possibly prepare for this system. Stay tuned and we will keep bringing you the latest information.