Tropical Storm Karen DiscussionOctober 3rd, 2013 at 2:54 pm by Jason Smith under FOX10 Weather
Tropical Storm Karen was officially named this morning, and now is a medium sized system with winds at 65 mph sustained. Moderate upper level wind shear out of the SSW is keeping the storm from intensifying further this afternoon. The shear is also helping to bring drier air from the western Gulf into the storm. Despite the marginal upper environment, Karen is moving over very warm waters at 84 degrees. Some strengthening is forecast as the system moves through the central Gulf Friday. As the system interacts with a cold front, weakening is expected on Saturday as it nears the coast. We also expect the system to move through rather quickly, with a fast forward speed. The storm will be fairly unsymmetrical, with most of the intense rain and wind near and east of the center. Models show the system could hit anywhere from the Mississippi Coast to the Panhandle. Our area is likely to see landfall sometime late Saturday or early Sunday based on the current forecast.
Spotty showers on the far outer edges of Karen are showing up along the coast
this evening. More outer bands will affect the area Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are likely from Saturday morning until Sunday morning. Rainfall 4”-8”, tides 3’-5’
above normal, and gusty winds (50mph) are the preliminary expectations. A sharp
trough will approach the region Sunday. This should eventually send a cold front
through the area Sunday night. Much cooler and drier weather is expected Monday and Tuesday.