Jason Smith

Update on Gulf Tropical Wave

September 12th, 2014 at 8:51 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

modA disorganized tropical low is now entering the Gulf of Mexico near Fort Myers, FL. This feature is significantly sheared by strong winds in the upper levels. The atmospheric moisture is also rather dry. The National Hurricane Center is predicting a 20% chance of development over the weekend. There is a slightly higher 30% chance of development early next week as it heads west over the Gulf. While water temperatures are very warm, a hostile upper environment will make any development slow to occur. There is a reasonable chance that the tropical moisture from this wave could get pulled into our area early next week, increasing rain chances.

Tropical Storm Edouard is in the open waters of the Atlantic. This system will gradually strengthen over the weekend. It’s not expected to impact any land areas in the extended forecast.


Tropics are Quiet

September 3rd, 2014 at 4:27 pm by under Jason Smith - FOX10 Outdoors

Scattered storms are again showing up on radar, with locally heavy rainfall amounts across the panhandle. These storms are being generated by a weak upper level low over the Panhandle. Rain chances will decrease after 10pm. Scattered storm chances continue each day this week, especially in the afternoon. The rain is welcome for many, after an abnormally dry August. Daytime highs will remain slightly above average for the next seven days, with readings in the low 90s. There are no signs of any cooler air in the extended forecast.

Tropical Storm Dolly dissipated over the higher terrain of Mexico. There are no other areas of concern in the tropics.


Summer Heat, Humidity

August 11th, 2014 at 2:14 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

The summer pattern keeps rolling along here in mid August in the Deep South. We are seeing another hot and humid day. Afternoon temperatures were in the low 90’s again on this Monday. We are tracking storms popping up over central Mississippi. All the activity will be moving from the northwest to the southeast this evening. Rain chances remain scattered up until around midnight.

Another round of strong/numerous afternoon storms are expected on Tuesday ahead of a weak cool front. This boundary should enter the forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday. We expect lower rain chances and slightly lower humidity by the middle of the week. This front is not expected to be a strong or as cool as the three record breaking fronts we saw in July.

Tropical weather is fairly quiet. We have one wave off the Cape Verdes that has a low chance of development over the next five days. It’s not currently a threat to the U.S.

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Record Lows (Again)

July 30th, 2014 at 4:03 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

We set a new record low in Mobile this morning at 65 degrees. This front is our third significant boundary this July. We have seen 8 nights below 70 degrees this month. Some fantastic heat relief is here again, with much lower humidity. Our coolest night may actually be tonight with lows in the mid 60’s along I-10. The current record is 66 degrees, and will likely be broken. We may also be in record country Thursday night. Drier air hangs around until Friday. Scattered storms return for the weekend. Temps will still be fairly comfortable into early next week, as the front lingers along the coast.

In the tropics, a disturbance midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands has a medium chance of developing. The system is moving west, and should turn more WNW as it approaches the northern Leeward islands. If this forms into Tropical Storm Bertha, the track will likely stay east of the U.S., based on the current forecast.


Lower Humidity Almost Here

July 28th, 2014 at 2:45 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

We have a slight risk of severe t-storms this evening along and ahead of a cold front. The front should be into the northern sections of the area by early evening, and then offshore by daybreak Tuesday. These stronger than average thunderstorms will contain frequent lightning and gusty winds.

This front will be our third significant boundary this July. Some fantastic heat relief is on the way. Dewpoints will drop 15 degrees between now and Tuesday, and our heat index will also be about 15 degrees lower ! Our coolest night should be Tuesday night with lows in the mid 60’s along I-10. The current record is 67 degrees, and will possibly be broken. Drier air hangs around until Friday. Scattered storms return for the weekend.

In the tropics, a disturbance s’west of the Cape Verde Islands has a medium chance of developing by Wednesday. The system is moving west, and has a high chance of developing in the next 5 days.

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T.D. Two Forms in Atlantic

July 21st, 2014 at 3:45 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

The old stalled front continues to linger over the forecast area and the Gulf Coast Region. The upper low has shifted a little more to the east today. The atmosphere has dried out a little so the t-storm activity is much lower this evening. Scattered chances remain this week, with the driest day being Thursday in the extended range. Temperatures will remain near normal for July with highs near 92, and lows near 73. Heat and humidity will continue to be the main theme.

A small low pressure are located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is getting better organized. This feature is now Tropical Depression #2 As of the 4pm advisory. The environment ahead of this feature is not conducive for rapid strengthening.


Record Lows Possible ?

July 15th, 2014 at 2:36 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

A substantial round of t-storms moved across the heart of the forecast area today. These storms were generated along a prefrontal trough ahead of a main cold front. Rain chances drop rapidly this evening. The surface front should make it to the coast by midnight tonight. Rain chances will be lower on Wednesday as the front gradually drifts through the area and offshore. We do expect a small window of drier air. Humidity will be noticeably lower during the day, with a high near 89. Lows on Wednesday night should be in the mid 60’s along I-10. The current record is 65 degrees set in 1886, and we could possibly tie or break it!

The front quickly shifts back across the area and the humidity returns on Friday. Long range models hint at the idea of a low pressure area developing in Arkansas. This should bring back good chances of scattered t-storms by the weekend. The tropics are quiet.


Fewer Storms

July 10th, 2014 at 6:49 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

We saw a significant increase in moisture in the atmosphere today. A break has developed in the upper ridge, and we saw a weak sagging front in central and northern Alabama. As a result a nice round of showers and storms swept through the area, dumping a half inch to an inch of rain in most spots.

Mid-level ridging rebuilds by Friday and the weekend. Drier air should move in, leaving us hot ! Rain chances will be lower by Saturday and Sunday, and this is good news for outdoor events like the Blue Angels. Daytime highs will be in the low to mid 90’s, and overnight lows will work their way back up into the low to mid 70’s. The tropics are quiet.

Long range models hint at the idea of another front arriving late next week. This should bring back scattered t-storms and perhaps slight lower temps by Thursday and Friday.


Heating Up !

June 30th, 2014 at 5:26 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

The heat is here in full force on this Monday. Most spots were reporting low-mid 90’s as of 3 pm. Heat Index values were in the 100-105 range in many areas. More heat is expected Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 90’s. Heat Indices on Tuesday will be 104-108 ! We are seeing no activity on radar, and things should stay dry through Tuesday. The ridging breaks down slightly on Wednesday, and isolated showers return. There is a slightly higher scattered chance of rain on Thursday. We return to typical summer conditions for the 4th of July on Thursday, with highs bear 92 and isolated t-storms in the afternoon.

There is one area of disturbed weather in the tropical that we are currently tracking. It’s no threat to us. There is an area of low pressure 125 miles east of Melbourne, Florida in the Atlantic. Environmental conditions are more favorable for development. A slight increase in t-shower activity could result in the formation of a depression. If the system becomes a storm, the name would be Arthur. The system will head closer to the Florida Atlantic Coast, and then turn towards the Carolinas on the 3rd and the 4th.


Typical June

June 17th, 2014 at 3:11 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

It certainly is a hot week, with highs in the low 90’s each day and only a few very brief t-showers. One shower popped up over west Mobile around lunchtime today, and then dissipated about 20 minutes later. The upper atmosphere is not supporting long lasting t-showers. Storm motion is very slow from east to west.

An upper level ridge will remain in place over the forecast area, along with weak surface high pressure centered just to our east. A decent sea breeze sets up each afternoon this week yet, moisture values remain moderate to low. Daytime heating and sea breeze activity will be enough to overcome the ridging, resulting in pop up afternoon and evening t-storms.

The best chances of rain will be just north of I-10. Daytime highs stay at or above 90 through early next week. The upper ridge breaks down a little by the end of the week, resulting in slightly higher chances of afternoon t-storms.