The late season tropical event named Ida made a direct hit on our section of the Gulf Coast, but the effects were relatively minor. Ida peaked as a category II Hurricane with 100mph winds as it entered the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday around noon. Ida steadily weakened throughout Sunday night and Monday as she raced towards the northern Gulf Coast. Strong s’west wind shear and cooler waters took the punch out of this system as it gained latitude.

Tropical storm force winds, with some impressive gusts, were recorded by most the coastal reporting stations across our area. The peak wind speed was a 62 mph gust reported at Alabama Port. The winds were most intense between 9pm and midnight as Ida neared the coast with 60-65 mph sustained winds. Most of the intense winds stayed just offshore. This tropical storm weakened steadily in the early morning hours on Tuesday. Winds were reduced to 50 mph at 3 am. And, we saw winds of 45mph by 6am as the system drifted over Mobile Bay. Ida was classified as extra-tropical by 9am as it stalled near Foley, AL.

Storm tide values averaged 3-4 feet above predicted tide levels, and most coastal flooding was relatively minor. Power outages were spotty. And most areas saw 3-5” of rain with minor street flooding reported. All in all, there were just a few limbs to pick up and some leaves to rake for most Gulf Coast residents.

Rain totals from the NWS Mobile

ALBERTA,AL (C)           3.06      ANDALUSIA,AL(C)          --

ATMORE,AL (C)            5.41      BEATRICE,AL(C)           --

BAY MINETTE,AL (C)       4.00      BIG CREEK LAKE,AL(D)     --

BARRY STEAM,AL (D)         --      BROOKLEY,AL (A)        2.86

BLACKWATER RIV,AL(D)     2.86      BOGUE HOMO,MS(D)       3.04

BUCKATUNNA,MS(C)         3.10      BUCKATUNNA CK,MS(D)      --

BREWTON-MURDER CK,AL(D)  4.14      BAKER,FL (D)             --

BREWTON,AL(C)            5.50      BAYOU LA BATRE,AL (D)    --

BUTLER,AL(C)               --      BEAUMONT,MS (C)          --

CHATOM,AL(C)               --      CRESTVIEW,FL(A)        4.39

CENTURY,FL(D)            1.66      CLAIBORNE,AL (D)       0.00

COFFEEVILLE,AL (D)         --      CODEN,AL (C)           3.90

CRESTVIEW,FL (D)         3.73      DAUPHIN ISLAND,AL (C)  2.65

DOTHAN,AL (A)            1.16      DESTIN,FL(A)           2.21

EVERGREEN,AL(C)          3.35      EVERGREEN,AL (D)       3.16 (MURDER CK)

EVERGREEN,AL(A)          3.55      FAIRHOPE,AL(C)         3.02

FOWL RIVER,AL(D)           --

FISH RIVER,AL(D)         3.05      GEORGIANNA,AL(C)         --

GREENVILLE,AL(C)         3.15      HIGHLAND HOME,AL(C)      --

HURLBURT FLD,FL(A)       1.91      JACKSON,AL(C)          2.50

LEAKESVILLE,MS(D)        0.00

MCLAIN,MS(D)             2.38      MILTON,FL(D)           4.15

MILLIGAN,FL(D)           3.55      MILLERS FERRY,AL(D)    0.95

MOLINO,FL(D)             3.97      MERRILL,MS(D)          2.79

MELVIN,AL(C)               --      MAGNOLIA RIVER,AL(D)   4.22

MOSSEY HEAD,FL(D)        3.81      NEW AUGUSTA,MS(D)      3.25

NICEVILLE,FL(C)          3.10      POINT CADET,MS(D)        --

PCOLA-11ML CRK,FL(D)     4.88      PINE APPLE,AL(C)         --

RIVER FALLS,AL(D)        2.10      ROBERTSDALE,AL(C)      3.53

RUNNELSTOWN,MS(D)        3.29

SHOAL RIVER,FL(D)        3.73

SNOW HILL,AL(D)            --      SPRING HILL,AL (D)       --

THOMASVILLE,AL(C)        3.49      VESTRY-RED CK,MS(D)      --

WIGGINS,MS(D)            1.60      WIGGINS,FLNT CK,MS(C)    --

WALLACE,AL(C)            4.15      WAYNESBORO,MS(C)       4.05

WHATLEY,AL(C)              --

Tropical Storm Ida continues to head our way… The center of Ida is located at 29.5 North and 88.8 West.  Maximum sustained winds are at 60mph. The system is moving to the North at 10 mph. A decrease in forward speed, and a turn to the n’east is expected tonight. Ida is gradual becoming extratopical.

The weakening trend will continue throughout tonight as Ida tracks over cooler waters in the  northern Gulf, and moves ashore. 4-6 inches of rain is expected, especially tonight. Also, we will see tides 4-5 feet above normal along the coast. High tide will occur near daybreak Tuesday. Winds gusting to tropical storm force are expected tonight and Tuesday morning.  So far, tides have been running 2-3 feet above normal, as of midnight tonight.

Winds have gusted as high as 62 mph at Alabama Port. We have seen sustained winds over tropical storm force at many locations in our area.

Ida is now a tropical storm. The center of Ida is located at 27.5 North and 88.4 West.  Maximum sustained winds are at 70mph. The system is moving to the NNW at 18 mph. The weakening trend will continue throughout today as Ida tracks over cooler waters in the central and northern Gulf. The system will also encounter stronger wind shear today. 

Quite a bit of rain is expected on today, tonight, and Tuesday. Also, we will see tides 3-6 feet above normal along the coast by tonight, with tropical storm force winds. We will see spotty power outages, along with limbs and debris on the roads. Travel tonight is not advised.

This center is now poorly organized as it is racing our way. With the 18 mph forward speed, and the center located about 180 miles south of Dauphin Island as of 1 pm, we may see landfall just before midnight tonight. The computer models hint at landfall in Mobile County or Baldwin County, as a strong tropical storm.

Hurricane Ida

Hurricane Ida is currently located near the Yucatan Channel and is entering the southern Gulf of Mexico. The center of  Ida is located at 21.2 North and 86.0 West. Winds are at 90 mph. The system is moving n’west at 10 mph and the central pressure is 983 mb. The hurricane force wind field is very small with Ida. However, tropical storm force winds extend 140 miles from the center.

A hurricane watch is in effect from Grande Isle , LA to the MS/AL border. This includes Jackson County, MS in our viewing area. A surface high pressure center off the Carolina Coast will combine with Ida to produce strong pressure gradient force winds across our area, especially along the coast. A gale warning is in effect from Monday afternoon until late Tuesday.

Ida is being steered by a mid to upper level trough over the western Gulf and a mid to upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf and northern Caribbean. The forecast track is now a little faster and the models are in agreement that this system will pass very close to our area on Tuesday. Some strengthening is expected today, and then a weakening trend will begin on Monday. Ida will be tracking over cooler waters in the central and northern Gulf. The system will also encounter stronger wind shear on Monday and Tuesday. We expect Ida to transition into an extra-tropical low as it reaches the northern Gulf Coast.

Across our area, we expect quite a bit of rain, especially on Monday afternoon and Tuesday. We will see tides above normal along the coast, with winds to tropical storm force on Monday night and Tuesday. Conditions will improve of Wednesday as Ida weakens further and tracks north and east of our area.

Tropical Depression Ida is currently moving off the Honduran Coast and back into the Caribbean Sea. This system will likely strengthen to Tropical Storm status and track into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Upper wind shear should keep Ida from becoming a hurricane. We expect Ida to become non tropical as it merges with a frontal zone on Tuesday, over the central Gulf. The system should head eastward towards Florida by Wednesday.

We don’t expect any major impacts here, other than a good bit of rain on Tuesday. Tides may also be 1-2 feet above normal on Monday and Tuesday mornings, affecting the Causeway, the West End of Dauphin Island, and other low coastal areas. It will also be rather breezy Mon-Wed as the pressure gradient tightens.

Tropical Depression Ida

The month of November is typically quiet in the tropics for number of reasons. The upper level winds become more hostile, keeping systems form forming. Water temperatures begin to fall below 82 degrees over much of the Atlantic Basin. And we see more dry air that can inhibit warm cored systems. Despite all of this, we have Ida.

Ida was briefly a hurricane this morning but is now rapidly weakening as a depression over eastern Nicaragua. The system will remain over land for the next 24 hours and will continue to weaken. It is possible that Ida will regenerate into a Tropical Storm in the Northwest Caribbean Sea on Saturday as it lifts northward. Water temperatures are near 84 degrees, plenty warm to support a tropical cyclone. However, the long period of time on land may disrupt the inner mechanics of this system.

Also, Ida would have to deal with moderate southwesterly wind shear in the northwest Caribbean. If the system defies climatology and is not picked up by the westerlies by mid week, you will find it reassuring to know that the water temps in the northern Gulf are below 80 degrees and an approaching system would weaken as it approached our area.

So there is plenty reason for us not to be worried about Ida. Here’s the bottom line. We could see tides above normal due to the pressure gradient involving low pressure in the S’west Gulf and Ida, and a strong ridge off North Carolina by Monday. We also could get quite a bit of rain next week. But, I do not expect a significant tropical system making landfall here with this situation.

I had the opportunity to visit the 3rd grade students at E.R. Dickson Elementary today. We talked getting into meteorology as a career, severe weather, and hurricanes. This was a great group and they had some interesting questions. They already know a lot about the weather.

Fall begins today at 4:18pm cdt according to the calendar, however the weather pattern remains very tropical and humid across the Gulf Coast. This is the exact time of the autumnal equinox. An equinox occurs twice a year, when the Earth’s axis is pointed vertically in relation to the sun. At this point, the equator points directly towards the sun. This is in reality, only an astronomical event. The nights are growing increasing longer. Temperatures tend to lag behind the frameworks of the seasons. Water and land temperatures take longer to cool, despite the longer periods of darkness.

There is a substantially better chance of seeing our first fall cool front in the last week in September, according to historical weather records. This event is delayed this year due to a persistent low that stalled over the Ark latex last week. A deep tropical air mass continues to hang tough over the south. We do see the opportunity to receive slight drier and cooler air by early next week in the extended computer models.

A low pressure area is cut off from the jet stream over north central Louisiana. This feature is creating a deep moist flow across our area, and it’s the classic environment for repeated rains. At the mid point in September, we have recorded 4.93“ of rain at Mobile Regional Airport. That is 1.87” above normal so far this month.    

The southwest flow at the surface is also making for muggy overnight temperatures. Lows have been ranging from the low 70’s inland, to the upper 70’s near the beaches. Typically, cooler weather usually arrives sometime during the last ten days of the month of September. We do see a cool front arriving mid week next week in the extended computer models.

There aren’t any features pushing our way in the next several days that would kick this pesky low out of our forecast area. We do think the low will gradually weaken by Saturday and Sunday, lowering our rain chances. The good news is that we are not seeing any organized activity in the tropics today…

I visited the students at Mary B. Austin Elementary near Springhill College on Friday. The kids are studying the water cycle and tropical systems. We talked about severe weather, hurricanes, and the field of broadcast journalism. I spoke to several second grade classes. Sarah McDonald, a student at Spring Hill College is currently interning at Mary B. Austin Elementary in Mary Sullivan’s second grade class. She asked me to come speak to her class and other second grade students.