The popularity of chasing storms has exploded in recent years, but last week’s El Reno, Oklahoma tornado has shown the stark reality of the dangers storm chasers face. Three experienced storm chasers and and one amateur died in the tornado that grew to record 2.6 miles wide. The immense size of the twister, with multiple vortices, surprised the storm chasers as the tornado took a turn and headed straight for a group of them watching the storm.

Check out this video from tour operater Tempest Tours. Yes, they’re is a tourism business for chasing tornadoes. At the beginning of the video, which they’ve sped up, you can see just how many storm chasers were watching the tornado as it formed and grew. The road is covered with a couple dozen people and multiple vehicles. As they watch, the storm grows, turns, and heads straight at them.

For the next several minutes of the video the tour operator is gunning it to outrace the twister, which at times is directly behind them. After some tense moments, they move to safe distance, but not everybody was so lucky.

Bottom line, chasing storms is dangerous business. A quick turn, a sudden strengthening, a misjudgement, and many other factors can lead to serious consequences. This time, even professionals lost their lives. It’s a sobering reality check of how dangerous chasing these monsters of Mother Nature can be.

Record lows have been falling across the Gulf Coast! A powerful upper-level low over Arkansas is funneling a frigid Canadian air-mass directly to the Gulf Coast. Saturday morning Mobile Regional set a new daily record with 43°, but get this, 43° also ties the all-time record low for the entire month of May! It was also a record-breaker in Pensacola with a low of 48° on Saturday morning.

We can expect quite a few records to be broken or tied Sunday morning as well, with widespread 40s to start the day. We will also stay a bit cooler for Sunday afternoon as well with highs only topping out in the upper 60s (Low 80s is the average for this time of year).

Our temps will stay below average for the first half of the week as things slowly warm up. By the second half of the week we will be back in the 80s as we head towards next weekend.

Humid, warm, and windy will be the key words for our Wednesday forecast. Highs will top out around 80 and there’s a slight chance (20%) of a shower later in the day.

A cold front will be headed our way Thursday. It will bring rain to our area throughout the day, with a line of storms with the actually front late in the afternoon. We have a slight risk of severe weather with that line of storms, but the conditions are marginal, so widespread severe weather is unlikely.

After the front passes it will be slightly cooler, and perhaps more importantly, less humid for the upcoming weekend!

Weather Summary:

Really just gorgeous weather over the next several days! Temps will gradually rise, but we will stay within springtime normals for this time off year.

So here’s the deal with the highs; Sunday will bring us mid 70s, Monday will bring upper 70s, and Tuesday through Thursday we will top out right at 80 degrees.

As far as the lows are concerned, Sunday will likely be the only morning we have widespread 50s. The rest of the week will start in the low 60s.

We will see a very slight cool off for next weekend after a system moves through on Thursday.

Thursday’s System:

On Thursday a cold front will be moving through the area. Right now the models aren’t trending towards anything severe as the strongest energy will likely stay to our north, but a decent rain event is certainly likely. With only an isolated shower possible out in front of this system on Wednesday it’s possible that Thursday will be the only day of the week we get rain.

All-in-all I would call that a pretty good springtime forecast! Get out and enjoy it!

It’s a tale of two systems… The first will come in Monday morning on Christmas Eve. This will mainly just be showers, but an isolated thunderstorm or two can’t be ruled out. Scattered showers will be possible right through the day and into the evening hours on Christmas eve.

While we are opening our gifts Tuesday morning, an area of low pressure will be developing over east Texas, and creating the second system. This low will feed on warm air (60 for a low and 70s for highs Christmas day!) and track eastward across the Gulf Coast. As the system feeds on the warm, moist air the ingredients will come together for a severe weather event. The Storm Prediction Center has areas west of I-65 under a substantial threat for severe weather.

The first storms could start bubbling up near or just after breakfast in the western half of our viewing area. These pre-frontal supercells are often the most dangerous (like the one that spawned Thursday’s tornado in Mobile). These supercells will have the opportunity to form throughout the day while we are in the warm sector of the system.

By the evening hours the front itself will be approaching. The front itself will bring a squall line through. Squall lines are unlikely to have tornadoes, but damaging straight-lines winds will be possible.

Once that line passes and the cold air moves in the threat will end, but from start to end this system could put our area under threat for 12+ hours.

The timing could possibly change, but the threat is there and we will have to vigilant as we watch this system develop. Of course, here at Fox10 we will be tracking all this and keeping you informed in the days ahead.

VIDEO FORECAST

Did you feel it? There was a weak earthquake in southern Mobile Bay Friday night around 10:30. It had a magnitude of 2.7, which is just barely strong enough for some folks to feel. It didn’t do any damage (it takes about a magnitude 5 to cause minor damage) and many folks in southern Mobile and Baldwin counties probably didn’t even notice it. It’s interesting though because we rarely get earthquakes of any magnitude around here, although around the world earthquakes of this magnitude happen one million times a year!

In February of 2011 there was a magnitude 3.5 earthquake just a few miles from this most recent one.

Isaac is still a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a forward movement of 12 mph to the NW. The storm is currently about 150 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi river.

With Isaac’s slow forward speed we will have to deal with this storm for quite awhile. Heavy rain bands will start sometime this morning and likely continue through Wednesday evening. So it’s possible we could have 36 hours of tropical storm conditions that will give us huge rainfall totals topping more than a foot.

Another threat from the storm is the surge we expect to come with it. For our viewing area the forecast is for a 6-8 ft rise. For coastal Mississippi it will be even worse, 9-13 ft. This will be the first major test for many structures rebuilt after they were flooded and/or destroyed by Katrina in 2005.

Lastly, the right-front quadrant of a landfalling tropical system can produce tornadoes within the squalls. We will have that threat as well throughout the day.

From the FOX10 STORMtracker Center… We will continue to have updates every 30 minutes here on Fox Ten, to help you make informed decisions in preparation for Isaac. Baldwin County EMA has started Mandatory Evacuations starting Monday morning for South Baldwin County, and Eastern Shore Zones 1 & 2. Mobile, Baldwin, and Escambia County, FL Public Schools are all *closed* Monday. More information on school closings can be found on our website Fox10tv.com. Tropical Storm Isaac continues to move quickly to the WNW at 15 mph and just passed the Florida Keys. Winds are currently 65 mph. This system has a large wind field with tropical storm force winds extending out 205 miles from the center. The storm is expected to gradually strengthen as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast fan is now focused on our area , the Mississippi Gulf Coast, or southeastern Louisiana . The system could make landfall Tuesday night as a Category II hurricane. Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for Mobile, Baldwin, Jackson, Escambia FL, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties in the Fox10 viewing area. Now is the time to prepare. The weather tonight and tomorrow will be decent, so you should take this time to gather supplies in the event that you lose power for an extended period of time. We’ll be doing updates at the top and bottom of every hour on Fox Ten. You can find more updates on www.fox10tv.com

We now under a HURRICANE WARNING from Destin to New Orleans as Isaac tracks past the Florida Keys. Most models have a landfall on the northern Gulf Coast late Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible during the day on Tuesday out ahead of the system. As far as the track is concerned, it’s an either/or scenario. Two reliable European models continue to forecast the storm will be picked up by a trough over the SE and pull the storm into South Alabama. All of the other reliable models have the trough missing Isaac and the storm continuing it’s northwestward path towards SE LA. If you look at the NHC official track it’s a compromise between those two scenarios witha landfall in Mississippi. At this point, it’s too early to tell which one of these scenarios might be right so we need be getting ready!

The intensity forecast is always more problamatic, but most models continue to trend towards a Category 1 (75-95 mph) or a Category 2 (96-110 mph). A lot of that depends on the exact track of the storm over the Gulf.

The weather will stay nice through Monday night giving us a window of time to prepare.

We now under a HURRICANE WARNING from Destin to New Orleans as Isaac tracks past the Florida Keys. Most models have a landfall on the northern Gulf Coast late Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible during the day on Tuesday out ahead of the system. As far as the track is concerned, it’s an either/or scenario. Two reliable European models continue to forecast the storm will be picked up by a trough over the SE and pull the storm into South Alabama. All of the other reliable models have the trough missing Isaac and the storm continuing it’s northwestward path towards SE LA. If you look at the NHC official track it’s a compromise between those two scenarios witha landfall in Mississippi. At this point, it’s too early to tell which one of these scenarios might be right so we need be getting ready!

The intensity forecast is always more problamatic, but most models continue to trend towards a Category 1 (75-95 mph) or a Category 2 (96-110 mph). A lot of that depends on the exact track of the storm over the Gulf.

The weather will stay nice through Monday night giving us a window of time to prepare.