The second half of the weekend will be a soaker! A warm front will move north overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. This will mean plenty of rain, heavy at times for Sunday morning. Severe weather is unlikely, but there is risks of small hail in the stronger storms and definitely expect plenty of lightning with some of the storms.
If there is good news here it’s that rain chances go down later in the day (but they don’t go away!). No guarantees, but hopefully as Neptune’s Daughters roll in the evening we’ll get that parade in with no issues.
Warm & Unsettled
Conditions will be warm and unsettled for the beginning of the work week. We have parades rolling both Monday night and Tuesday night and we will have rain chances on those days. Once again, the good news here is that the chances are just for scattered rain showers by the time the parades are rolling.
Colder & Still Unsettled
7 Day Outlook
A cold front moves through Wednesday morning turning conditions colder. Compared to some of the earlier systems we’ve had this year this one doesn’t pack much of a cold punch, but it will be noticeably cooler for the second half of the week.
After a break in the rain most of Wednesday and Thursday another disturbance cranks up rain chances for Friday and the following weekend. This is of course as we are moving in the heart of the Mardi Gras parade season. Right now the chances call for scattered storms, but we’ll definitely refine the forecast as we move closer to the weekend.
We are hitting a run of spring-like weather! Thanks to a strong southerly flow of the Gulf we will go from low 70s Monday afternoon to Mid 70s by Wednesday afternoon. Morning lows will follow suit going from the 40s Monday morning, to the upper 50s and low 60s for the rest of the week.
ISOLATED SHOWERS; FOG
That southerly flow of the Gulf will also increase the moisture in the air. That will mean fog most mornings this week and isolated showers during the day from Tuesday through Thursday.
NEXT FRONT FRIDAY
The next cold front will be this coming Friday. Expect a good chance of showers and possible thunderstorms that day. The good news with this system is that it doesn’t appear to be that cold. Temps will come down a bit for next weekend, but will likely stay a above normal anyway with lows in the upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s.
Looks like we are finally in for a run of “normal” weather! Starting with Sunday, expect a chilly morning with lows near 40 followed by a mild afternoon in the mid to upper 60s with a few clouds. Monday will be mild as well with mostly cloudy skies.
A cold front arrives during the day on Tuesday. Rain will be likely throughout the day as the system moves through. Highs will top out in the low 50s. Wednesday morning lows will dip into the upper 30s and highs will rise into the mid 50s in the afternoon. An upper-level disturbance cranks up our rain chances again from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning.
Valentine’s Day and Mardi Gras:
Friday is Valentine’s day and the weather will be good for whatever you’re planning. The weather will also stay nice into next weekend, which is the first big weekend of Mardi Gras. Expect cool mornings, warm afternoons, and nice evenings next weekend.
Yes this is what a “normal” weather forecast should look like this time of year. Let’s hope things stay “normal” for awhile.
Models predict widespread ice accumulations from 0.25”-0.50” which is very significant! Accumulations greater than 0.25” cause serious issues with freezing roads, especially bridges and overpasses. The icing will get worse as the day goes along and should be very serious after sunset.
The best advice is to just stay off the roads. If you have to be out, take it very slow and watch out for others losing control of their vehicles.
In the evening hours on the back edge of the precipitation the freezing rain and sleet will transition over to snow. Some inland areas should get 1”-2” and possibly more in spots. Along I-10 snowfall amount will likely total less than an inch. South of I-10 probably just a dusting at best.
Wednesday Still Wintry:
All the precipitation wraps up Wednesday morning as temps bottom out around 20 degrees. Some of the ice and snow will evaporate, but some could hang around on the ground through the morning and even into the afternoon with highs only reaching the mid 30s in many spots.
After another chilly start in the 20s we will warm into the 50s by the afternoon on Thursday. That will melt whatever’s left and end any icy threats. By the weekend our highs will be close to 70 degrees!!
We are officially on snow patrol! A strong push of arctic air will plow into the area Monday evening. Out ahead of that arctic air there will be run of the mill rain showers, but once that cold air is in place Tuesday we are setting up for quite a different scenario.
MOISTURE MOVES IN
Moisture from an upper-level disturbance will start spreading wintry weather across Texas early Tuesday morning. That moisture will move quickly eastward spreading sleet, freezing rain, and snow flurries along the Gulf Coast.
It’s likely we’ll see this all start out as a cold rain early Tuesday afternoon. As temps drop some of that rain should change over to sleet and possibly even freezing rain (the worst of winter weather). As we move into the evening hours many areas will see the precipitation completely change over to snow flurries with 1”-2” accumulations probable and even higher amounts in a few spotty areas. The last few flurries should wrap up Wednesday morning with melting occurring by the afternoon.
TRAVEL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
As the weather picks up Tuesday travel will likely become treacherous. The biggest worry is icing on overpasses and bridges. Remember local municipalities are not equipped to deal with ANY kind of winter weather and all-season tires that nearly all of us drive on are fine for rain, but not for ice. Stayed tuned to FOX10 News we will definitely be keeping an eye out on the conditions and letting you know if it becomes unsafe.
THE REAL DEAL
Often winter weather events are marginal at best here on the Gulf Coast and many times they simply don’t pan out. This time though there’s a lot of agreement in the models and confidence is high that we will see a significant event.
Several, mostly dry cold fronts will push through our area this upcoming week. Those fronts will keep our area on the chilly side. Keep in mind our average temperatures at this time of year are 40 in the morning and 60 in the afternoon. For the most part we will stay below those numbers for the next several days and well below mid-week to later in the week.
The first front is a clipper-type system that will move through quickly early Sunday morning. This front will tap into a little Gulf moisture so it’s possible we may see a few isolated showers before dawn on Sunday morning. Gusty winds pick up behind the front for our Sunday, but even so the afternoon will be mild with tempos around 60.
After a mild Monday (mid 60s the warmest day of the week) another quick, dry front will move through Monday night. This front will bring the coldest batch of air this week. As the cold air settles in Tuesday night our Wednesday morning temps will plummet well down into the 20s and the Wednesday highs won’t reach 50!
The third cold front will come in on Thursday morning. This one will also be a dry front, but it will help keep our morning temps in the upper 20s Thursday and Friday morning.
In summary, it will be cold this week!
Wow! So what a difference just a couple of days can make! Record-shattering cold Tuesday and Wednesday, but this Friday morning most areas in the upper 40s or low 50s! As the day goes along we will continue to warm into the mid 60s under grey skies.
Coastal areas could be fogged in today. Cool near-shore waters and warm air over land could create thick fog near our beaches.
Isolated showers are possible through the day Friday out ahead of a cold front that is approaching from the west. Those rain chances increase into the likely category overnight Friday into Saturday morning when the front arrives. The good news here is that we are not expecting anything severe and the rain will likely wrap up fairly early Saturday morning leaving us with improving conditions through the rest of the day.
After the front moves through, temps will drop, but just down to “normal” for this time of year, with Sunday morning in the low 40s. Sunday Afternoon will be sunny and mild with highs in the upper 60s.
Another quick-moving system on Monday will bring a few showers and then leave us with seasonable temperatures for the rest of the upcoming week with morning lows around 40 and afternoon highs in the low 60s.
It would be hard to understate what is about to happen. One of the coldest air masses in decades is moving south and will put the whole Eastern half of the country in the deep freeze. For us that will mean a forty degree temperature drop Sunday night, mid to low teens Monday night, and teens again Tuesday night!
Rain or Snow?
We will warm up out ahead of the cold front into the upper 60s Sunday afternoon. Some, light scattered showers are possible as the front moves in Sunday evening, most of that falling while we are still quite warm. It’s possible if a little moisture holds on behind the front there could be a few light flurries for some inland areas, but it’s not likely. If there were a couple of flurries, warm ground temperatures would melt it on contact.
Sunday night is the big dip as temps go from the upper 60s down to the upper 20s with Monday morning wind chills in the lower teens! With lots of sunshine Monday we should see highs rebound back to about 40 degrees, but then get ready for one of the coldest nights in years!
Tuesday lows will drop to 11°-12° for inland areas, 13°-14° for Mobile, upper teens south of I-10, and around 20° all the way down to the Gulf! That’s the coldest temperatures we’ve had since 1996.
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will also be quite cold, but not as cold as the previous night, with widespread teens and lower 20s.
Love the Gulf Coast
The great thing about being on the Gulf Coast is when we have even this severe of an outbreak of cold weather it doesn’t take long for us to warm back up! By the end of the week the highs will be back near 70 degrees!
Cold Weather Preps
Make sure you’re ready for this serious chill. Please bring in pets, do what you can to protect your plants, and give some serious consideration to protecting pipes, hoses and water pumps.
Big changes over the next 24 hours!! We will continue to see grey skies and drizzles overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. During that time it will be relatively mild in the mid to upper 50s.
The changes come with a cold front that will blow in midday on Thursday. The drizzles will end, a brisk NW wind will pick up, and temps will plummet. Highs on Thursday near 60 will happen before lunchtime and the afternoon temp will be a good ten degrees cooler.
Friday morning we will wake up to widespread 20s across our area with freezing conditions right down to the beaches. Most models are suggesting low 20s inland, mid 20s along I-10, and low 30s on the water.
Friday afternoon won’t be much better with highs only reaching the mid to upper 40s with brisk winds.
Expect temps to stay cold, but rebound as we move into the weekend.
Another Arctic Chill
Sunday night will bring another cold front with a few scattered showers and, more importantly, another shot of arctic air behind it. We could see several mornings in the 20s next week. Brrrrrrrr.
Get ready for the return of rain! An area of low pressure is forming off the southern coast of Texas this morning. That low will track across the Gulf through the day on Saturday arriving in the Panama City area Saturday evening. This puts us on the north (cool) side of the system, with no worries about severe weather, but a good bit of rain is likely. We will see as much as 1”-3” inches in total with the heavier amounts falling in the eastern half of our area.
RAIN ENDS; CHILLY START TO 2014!
The rain will wrap up in our area early Sunday morning, leaving us with cloudy and cool conditions throughout the rest of the day. Monday will be mild and sunny with the colder air arriving in the evening hours. That cold batch of air will drop our temps near freezing both Tuesday and Wednesday (New Year’s day!) morning. So this of course means if you have New Year’s Eve festivities dress warmly!!