Severe Risk Increased
The Storm Prediction Center has increased our risk of severe weather tonight and early Monday morning, particularly for the threat of tornadoes.
Most of our viewing area is included in the 10% risk zone for tornadoes. That doesn’t sound like a big chance, but we’re talking about tornadoes here. Because of that, the SPC added a black hatched area within that 10% risk area to denote that this is a significant chance of not just tornadoes, but strong EF 2+ tornadoes.
Why the increased concern? Well we’re expecting discrete, supercell thunderstorms to form out ahead of the main line late tonight. These lone thunderstorms will be able to grow in a moisture-rich environment and strong low-level winds will create the shear to get them rotating. It’s these type of storms that are able to produce the strongest tornadoes, so that’s why the SPC is warning of EF 2+ tornadoes.
There is a limiting factor on the strength of these storms tonight and that is the overnight timing. The heating of the day will be gone and the atmosphere will be slightly more stable.
The stronger storms ahead of the main line could start building early this evening west of us and then move through the area during the overnight hours. A squall line will move through with the cold front itself early Monday morning just before or during the morning commute. We may see more severe weather with the squall line, but that would be mainly a straight-line wind threat.
After the squall line moves through Monday morning the rain will be done and conditions will improve as we go through the day.
Get ready for a soaker! A warm front generated by a low in Texas will be moving across the deep south Sunday and Monday. We will see our rain chances increasing through the day on Sunday with showers and storms a near certainty.
For now the Storm Prediction Center has our area in a Slight Risk environment for severe weather Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. The main threat will be for strong winds and hail, but there is also a threat of isolated tornadoes in discrete cells out in front of the main squall line Sunday night.
The main squall line will move through early Monday morning, possibly impacting our morning commute. The main threat with the squall line will be damaging winds and hail.
Another overall risk for the next 48 hours will be the heavy rain. Models are currently forecasting 2” to 4” of total rain with isolated spots getting possibly as much as 6”. That could cause problematic flooding and road issues.
The system will clear out by lunchtime Monday and our weather will quickly improve. We will have pleasant spring conditions from Tuesday right through next Saturday.
Temps will be turning much cooler tonight! If you’re going out for any St. Patrick’s festivities dress warmly as temps drop into the 40s during the early evening. Temperatures continue to drop overnight and many areas will be in the upper 30s for morning lows on Tuesday. Skies will gradually be clearing during this time as well.
Sunshine Returns; Temps Rebound!
The clearing skies will lead to plenty of sun for our Tuesday and a quick rebound with the temps. We will top out in the mid to upper 60s by the afternoon and it just gets warmer from there!
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday all look great with mostly sunny skies and mid 70s for highs!
Unfortunately the timing for our next system is next weekend. A few showers are possible Saturday as that system approaches and the chances will increase for Sunday.
It’s too early to forecast any severe possibilities with this system, but at this time of year any system bears watching for rough weather.
The Storm Prediction Center has elevated our severe risk for Sunday. We are now in the ‘slight risk’ sector across our part of the Gulf Coast. The reason for the upgrade is that there is some low-level energy developing, mainly offshore. So the possibility is, a severe storm our two developing over the Gulf and then holding together long enough to bring damaging winds to coastal areas. The chance one of those storms spawns a significant tornado is extremely low, but not zero either.
These possible strong storms will be coming due to a cold front that will pass through the area Sunday. Outside of anything severe expect heavy rain as the system moves through.
St Patrick’s Day:
Some leftover showers are possible Monday morning, otherwise it will be a cloudy and grey day with cooler air moving in. Highs will struggle reach 6o and overnight temps will drop to around 40 in many areas.
After Monday, things clear up and sunshine returns. In fact, the rest of the work week looks really nice with cool mornings and warm afternoons!
The second half of the weekend will be a soaker! A warm front will move north overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. This will mean plenty of rain, heavy at times for Sunday morning. Severe weather is unlikely, but there is risks of small hail in the stronger storms and definitely expect plenty of lightning with some of the storms.
If there is good news here it’s that rain chances go down later in the day (but they don’t go away!). No guarantees, but hopefully as Neptune’s Daughters roll in the evening we’ll get that parade in with no issues.
Warm & Unsettled
Conditions will be warm and unsettled for the beginning of the work week. We have parades rolling both Monday night and Tuesday night and we will have rain chances on those days. Once again, the good news here is that the chances are just for scattered rain showers by the time the parades are rolling.
Colder & Still Unsettled
7 Day Outlook
A cold front moves through Wednesday morning turning conditions colder. Compared to some of the earlier systems we’ve had this year this one doesn’t pack much of a cold punch, but it will be noticeably cooler for the second half of the week.
After a break in the rain most of Wednesday and Thursday another disturbance cranks up rain chances for Friday and the following weekend. This is of course as we are moving in the heart of the Mardi Gras parade season. Right now the chances call for scattered storms, but we’ll definitely refine the forecast as we move closer to the weekend.
We are hitting a run of spring-like weather! Thanks to a strong southerly flow of the Gulf we will go from low 70s Monday afternoon to Mid 70s by Wednesday afternoon. Morning lows will follow suit going from the 40s Monday morning, to the upper 50s and low 60s for the rest of the week.
ISOLATED SHOWERS; FOG
That southerly flow of the Gulf will also increase the moisture in the air. That will mean fog most mornings this week and isolated showers during the day from Tuesday through Thursday.
NEXT FRONT FRIDAY
The next cold front will be this coming Friday. Expect a good chance of showers and possible thunderstorms that day. The good news with this system is that it doesn’t appear to be that cold. Temps will come down a bit for next weekend, but will likely stay a above normal anyway with lows in the upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s.
Looks like we are finally in for a run of “normal” weather! Starting with Sunday, expect a chilly morning with lows near 40 followed by a mild afternoon in the mid to upper 60s with a few clouds. Monday will be mild as well with mostly cloudy skies.
A cold front arrives during the day on Tuesday. Rain will be likely throughout the day as the system moves through. Highs will top out in the low 50s. Wednesday morning lows will dip into the upper 30s and highs will rise into the mid 50s in the afternoon. An upper-level disturbance cranks up our rain chances again from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning.
Valentine’s Day and Mardi Gras:
Friday is Valentine’s day and the weather will be good for whatever you’re planning. The weather will also stay nice into next weekend, which is the first big weekend of Mardi Gras. Expect cool mornings, warm afternoons, and nice evenings next weekend.
Yes this is what a “normal” weather forecast should look like this time of year. Let’s hope things stay “normal” for awhile.
Models predict widespread ice accumulations from 0.25”-0.50” which is very significant! Accumulations greater than 0.25” cause serious issues with freezing roads, especially bridges and overpasses. The icing will get worse as the day goes along and should be very serious after sunset.
The best advice is to just stay off the roads. If you have to be out, take it very slow and watch out for others losing control of their vehicles.
In the evening hours on the back edge of the precipitation the freezing rain and sleet will transition over to snow. Some inland areas should get 1”-2” and possibly more in spots. Along I-10 snowfall amount will likely total less than an inch. South of I-10 probably just a dusting at best.
Wednesday Still Wintry:
All the precipitation wraps up Wednesday morning as temps bottom out around 20 degrees. Some of the ice and snow will evaporate, but some could hang around on the ground through the morning and even into the afternoon with highs only reaching the mid 30s in many spots.
After another chilly start in the 20s we will warm into the 50s by the afternoon on Thursday. That will melt whatever’s left and end any icy threats. By the weekend our highs will be close to 70 degrees!!
We are officially on snow patrol! A strong push of arctic air will plow into the area Monday evening. Out ahead of that arctic air there will be run of the mill rain showers, but once that cold air is in place Tuesday we are setting up for quite a different scenario.
MOISTURE MOVES IN
Moisture from an upper-level disturbance will start spreading wintry weather across Texas early Tuesday morning. That moisture will move quickly eastward spreading sleet, freezing rain, and snow flurries along the Gulf Coast.
It’s likely we’ll see this all start out as a cold rain early Tuesday afternoon. As temps drop some of that rain should change over to sleet and possibly even freezing rain (the worst of winter weather). As we move into the evening hours many areas will see the precipitation completely change over to snow flurries with 1”-2” accumulations probable and even higher amounts in a few spotty areas. The last few flurries should wrap up Wednesday morning with melting occurring by the afternoon.
TRAVEL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
As the weather picks up Tuesday travel will likely become treacherous. The biggest worry is icing on overpasses and bridges. Remember local municipalities are not equipped to deal with ANY kind of winter weather and all-season tires that nearly all of us drive on are fine for rain, but not for ice. Stayed tuned to FOX10 News we will definitely be keeping an eye out on the conditions and letting you know if it becomes unsafe.
THE REAL DEAL
Often winter weather events are marginal at best here on the Gulf Coast and many times they simply don’t pan out. This time though there’s a lot of agreement in the models and confidence is high that we will see a significant event.
Several, mostly dry cold fronts will push through our area this upcoming week. Those fronts will keep our area on the chilly side. Keep in mind our average temperatures at this time of year are 40 in the morning and 60 in the afternoon. For the most part we will stay below those numbers for the next several days and well below mid-week to later in the week.
The first front is a clipper-type system that will move through quickly early Sunday morning. This front will tap into a little Gulf moisture so it’s possible we may see a few isolated showers before dawn on Sunday morning. Gusty winds pick up behind the front for our Sunday, but even so the afternoon will be mild with tempos around 60.
After a mild Monday (mid 60s the warmest day of the week) another quick, dry front will move through Monday night. This front will bring the coldest batch of air this week. As the cold air settles in Tuesday night our Wednesday morning temps will plummet well down into the 20s and the Wednesday highs won’t reach 50!
The third cold front will come in on Thursday morning. This one will also be a dry front, but it will help keep our morning temps in the upper 20s Thursday and Friday morning.
In summary, it will be cold this week!