The Heat Index is something you’re heard us mention a lot the past few weeks and this graphic was the heat index as of 9am, pretty rough right. But if you’re wondering what exactly it is, put simply it’s the temperature that it feels like when humidity is factored in. Sort of the reverse of a Wind Chill. It has to do more with the dew point than it does the relative humidity in the air. The dew point is the TRUE measure of humidity because the higher that number climbs, the higher the moisture content. When you have an 85 degree temperature and a dew point in the mid to upper 70s, buckle up. With the dew point any thing higher than 65 degrees is considered pretty humid and ours have been in the upper 70s so this is the time you need to make sure you have a plan to beat the heat. Stay hydrated, do outdoor activities in the morning or near dusk, and check on the elderly. But look on the bright side, October will be here before you know it!
At the time i’m typing this discussion, Isaac is still a Category One Hurricane with Max Sustained Winds of 80mph. As he pushes farther inland we’ll see Isaac weaken back into a Tropical Storm before the day is over. Here’s a look at the track.
As you can see, he should become a Tropical Storm later today and then weaken farther into a Depression by tomorrow. But let’s focus on what we can see later today and that is the risk for more spin up tornadoes.
Isaac will continue to create the risk of tornadoes in the feeder bands but these will be short lived and VERY weak. Jackson and Mobile counties has the highest risk of seeing more warnings issued throughout the day today. But conditions will improve greatly as we hit late tomorrow.
Isaac is still a Tropical Storm as of 6:30 this morning, but is still projected to become a Category One Hurricane later today. This will be the intensity at the time of landfall which is projected to be tonight and into tomorrow with the likely destination around New Orleans. Since we are on the eastern side of the system, we will still feel the impacts from Isaac without a doubt.
This graphic shows that the cone of uncertainty doesn’t exist for our area which leads us to believe that New Orleans will in fact be his final destination. Our biggest hazards will end up being storm surge of around 6′, flash flooding, and isolated tornadoes in the feeder bands. Conditions will improve once we move in towards Thursday and Friday and as always, we’ll be watching very closely.
It seems like Isaac has become the headache that wont go away but there have been some significant developments from last night to this morning. Most of the models have been saying that Isaac is going to make landfall just to the west of New Orleans and the new official track from the Hurricane Center are starting to go along with that.
You’ll notice on this graphic that the cone of uncertainty is outside of the Alabama and Florida counties in our viewing area, but let’s not breathe any sighs of relief yet. This thing can still change course easily. Also our part of the Gulf Coast will be on the East side of the storm so wind, rain, and storm surge are all still possible with Isaac. He is projected to make landfall as a Cat 1 Hurricane with 85-90 max sustained winds. We’ll continue to follow any changes that happen with Isaac and pass them along to you immediately.
Isaac is still a Tropical Storm, but a very strong one and we should see him turn into Hurricane by late tonight and early Monday. The track has shifted again and this time it bring Isaac right on top of Mobile Bay as a Category 2 Hurricane late Tuesday night and into Wednesday. This image shows the latest track from the Hurricane Center and this is valid as of 4am.
Based on this track there have been Hurricane Watches issued for all the coastal waters in our area. We need to treat this as a serious situation and make sure that you take the proper precautions as soon as possible. Putting gas in your car, buying batteries, and getting bottled water are all important things to make sure you do at this point. Now take a look at this next graphic.
This is a look at the raw model data for Isaac and clearly does not show agreement on his final landfall. An upper trough will play a big role in where this thing goes. If the trough dips down quickly it could steer it East, or if it could get caught in an upper Ridge building from the West and track it in that direction. We’ll just have to keep watching but please make sure you don’t take this lightly. We’ll have updates here on Fox10tv.com throughout the day.
Isaac is without a doubt the big focus in our weather for the next few days, especially as we hit next week. As of the 10am update from the National Hurricane Center this is the current track.
You’ll notice in the graphic, that the folks at NHC are starting to think that possibly the raw model data from earlier this morning may be right and this system will be slowly recurving to the East. This track would put it around Destin early Wednesday morning. Will this occur? It’s hard to say.
This is a look at the raw model data from this morning and as you can tell most of the models are trending in an Eastward direction. If this system can continue heading in that direction that a good chunk of the Fox10 viewing area would be on the dry side of the system and might only end up dealing with rough surf. Again, it’s 5 days away and no one can make a definite call on the final destination.
With all of this said, if we assume that Isaac is heading right for us then this is the perfect time to prepare. The weather for the next few days will be quiet and you should be able to prep for whatever might come our way next week. As always, Fox10tv.com is the place to find the latest info on this system as well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages.
We’ve gotten pretty used to the scattered storms that have shown up each and every afternoon this week, but as we hit the upcoming weekend we’ll be dealing with an approaching front.
As this front approaches, the odds of rain will jump up into the 50-60% range over Saturday and Sunday. Bear in mind that it won’t rain all day but the coverage will be higher during the course of both of those days.
If you have any plans this weekend, listen for the thunder and head indoors immediately.
So I’m sure many of you on the Gulf Coast a time or two have noticed the flags at the beaches and wondered what each one of them specifically means and also wondered could you get in trouble for violating closed waters. Well, each flag does have a purpose, and yes violating closed waters can get you in trouble but mostly for your own personal safety.
Blue and Purple Flags
These flags don’t mean that the currents are rough, but they mean that certain marine life could ruin your beach experience. Here on the Gulf Coast that risk is mainly from jellyfish. If the waters are closed when these flags are out, that means that the marine life present is extremely dangerous.
The green flags mean that everything is in the all-clear and it’s safe to swim in the water, but as always use caution cause the beaches can sometimes be unpredictable.
The yellow flags mean that ocean conditions are rough but not life threatening. You should only swim near lifeguard stands on yellow flag days as the surf is rough and rip current risks are prevalent. If you aren’t a strong swimmer it’s recommended to wear a life jacket.
The red flags mean that the surf and rip current risk is extremely high and only strong swimmers should enter the water. Everyone else should stay out.
Double Red Flags
This means that the waters are closed, primarily for safety reasons due to dangerous beach conditions or a local event prevents swimmers to enter the waters. Anyone in the water during double red flag is prohibited.
So, what happens if you violate this policy? You can be fined. It’s the same as if you violate the speed limit. Break the law, get a ticket. This does happen in the event that someone willfully violates the flag postings. Most of the time you’ll get a warning but in some cases it has happened that tickets are written. So it’s best to stay away from the water during double red flags mainly for your own safety.
We recently had a video sent through “Report !t” and what looks to be the formation of a tornado is anything but. It’s a common mistake, but what we see in the video is actually a Scud Cloud.
A scud cloud is a cloud that shows up beneath cumulonimbus clouds (t-storm clouds) and appear very ragged. They form as warmer updraft of a t-storm lifts warm air near the surface. The main difference between spotting a scud cloud and a tornado is that there is no rotation with a scud cloud. However, if you spot a scud cloud then be advised that its parent cloud is capable of producing heavy rain, lightning, and gusty wind.