FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

NHC’s New Surge Warning Map

December 11th, 2014 at 10:55 am by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather
NHC's New Storm Surge Warning Graphic

NHC’s New Storm Surge Warning Graphic

 

Mobile (WALA)- Today the National Hurricane Center unveiled an experimental storm surge watch and warning graphic that will be available next hurricane season. The new graphic is very similar to the hurricane watch and warning graphic that we are all familiar with.

A surge watch will posted when life-threatening surge is possible within 36 hours. A surge warning will mean an area is likely to have life-threatening surge within 24 hours.

Currently forecasters have forecast products and models to aid in predicting storm surge. What this new watch/warning graphic will do is simplify the areas of danger to the public and give emergency managers a tool to aid in evacuation planning.

Storm surge is the most destructive and deadly aspect of a tropical system. Coastal residents who feel they’re safe from the wind of a tropical system can often still be endangered by storm surge. This new graphic will separate the strong wind danger from the surge danger and provide a clearer picture of a storm’s potential hazards.


Hurricane Season 2014 Wrapping Up

November 26th, 2014 at 2:17 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

Mobile (WALA) – Hurricane season 2014 wraps up at the end of this month. With nothing likely to form, we can go ahead and put the wraps on this season as we head off to eat turkey.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season

2014 Summary
The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season started with Arthur. It was the only storm that made landfall in the U.S. It did so on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a category 1 hurricane.
The second storm was Hurricane Bertha which went through the Caribbean but didn’t reach the U.S.
The third storm was Hurricane Cristobal, which was the deadliest. Two people died in the U.S. due to rip currents, and five people died in the Caribbean from flooding.
The “D” storm was Tropical Storm Dolly. It moved into Central Mexico.
The “E” storm was Edouard, it became a major hurricane, but never went anywhere near land.
Bermuda Hardest Hit
Fay was a minimal hurricane that passed right over Bermuda, and then less than a week later, Gonzalo, a major hurricane struck Bermuda. This became the costliest storm of the year with about $200 million in damage.
The last storm was Tropical Storm Hanna which affected Southern Mexico.
2014 Stats

2014 Stats

Slow Season
In total there were 8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. An average year is 12 named, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. This year was a slow year for named storms, but the ones that did form mostly became hurricanes.
How does the 2014 season stack up historically? It’s nowhere near the most active season. That was 2005 when 28 named storms formed and Greek letters had to be used by the end of the season. 2014 ends up in the bottom 5 of seasons with the least activity. The last comparable year would be 1992 when only 7 named storms. Of course one of those storms was named Andrew so it was a deadly year anyway. Still holding the title for the least active season in the satellite era is 1962 when only 5 named storms formed.
In summary 2014 was one of the least active, least costly, and least deadly of hurricane seasons on record.

Showers Tuesday, Dry Thanksgiving

November 24th, 2014 at 2:59 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

Light Showers Tuesday, Dry Thanksgiving

A weak wave of low pressure forms along a surface front that is located to our south and east over the Gulf. This feature will bring us increasing clouds and cold rain showers Tuesday afternoon. The light rain will linger Tuesday night, along with temps falling into the 30’s. Showers are not expected to mix with significant winter precipitation.

The rain showers clear rapidly overnight Tuesday. The forecast looks dry and cool for Thanksgiving. We will have good travel weather across most of the S’east U.S. Out temperatures will be near 60 each afternoon. The nights will be chilly with lows in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.

Facebook: Meteorologist Jason Smith
Twitter: @JasonSmithFox10


Matt’s Sunday Severe Weather Update

November 23rd, 2014 at 7:35 am by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather
Sunday Severe Risk

Sunday Severe Risk

Weather Summary:

A line of strong storms could bring us some severe weather Sunday morning. The storms will be strengthening in the next few hours as a warm front moves north across our area. The Storm Prediction Center has most of our entire area in a slight risk zone.  Parts of the Florida Panhandle, from Santa Rosa County eastward, have an enhanced risk of severe weather due to slightly higher severe dynamics to the east.

Timing:

The strong storms will begin mid-morning in Mobile county and western parts of the viewing area.  The storms will roll eastward throughout the late morning and into the early afternoon. The rain should end mid-afternoon and conditions will quickly improve.

Impacts:

Don’t be surprised that if at some point this morning our area is put under a tornado watch or a severe thunderstorm watch. For us, the most likely form of severe weather with this system will be strong straight-line winds and heavy rain. The risk of tornadoes is lower, but a quick tornado or two can’t be ruled out.

After Sunday:

Conditions improve quickly after Sunday afternoon. As we go into the upcoming week we will have fairly typical weather with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Thanksgiving Day looks great with a 40 degree start and a nearly 70 degree afternoon under mostly sunny skies!


SPC lowers severe risk to slight for Sunday

November 22nd, 2014 at 5:07 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather
Severe Risk Sunday

Severe Risk Sunday

Weather Summary:

A line of strong storms could bring us some severe weather Sunday morning. The storms will be strengthening after dawn as a warm front moves north across our area. The Storm Prediction Center has our entire area in the slight risk zone.

Timing:

We should see rain and storms starting around 3am, particularly in coastal areas. The storms will move inland after dawn and move from west to east across the area through early afternoon.

Impacts:

The most likely form of severe weather with this system will be strong straight-line winds and heavy rain. The risk of tornadoes is lower, but a quick tornado or two can’t be ruled out.

 


Enhanced Severe Threat Sunday

November 22nd, 2014 at 9:41 am by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

day2otlk_0700Strong Storms, Heavy Rain Sunday…

Enhanced Severe Risk, isolated tornadoes/damaging wind threat…

The Fox Ten Storm Team will be keeping a close eye on the forecast, and we are tracking the possibilty of strong storms Sunday. The weather pattern starts to change through the day on this Saturday. A surface ridge to our northeast weakens and shifts out over the Atlantic. Winds and clouds increase by the evening. By late evening, we will introduce an isolated chance of rain.

A much higher chances of rain and storms will come after midnight and into the early morning hours on Sunday. A few strong storms are possible near Pascagoula, and in the s’west part of the area just before dawn.

A surface warm front lifts across the area around daybreak Sunday morning. An enhanced risk of severe weather is expected, mainly Sunday morning and early afternoon. A strong squall line is expected midday. We expect 2-4” rain totals, with locally higher amounts, especially to the east along the Panhandle. We turn cooler, with clearing skies for Thanksgiving Week.


Hard Freeze Tonight

November 18th, 2014 at 4:39 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

B2wfySEIQAAQD1WFreeze Warning tonight…
Record lows expected tonight…

We saw a record low of 33 in Destin last night. Highs so far today have been only in the mid to upper 40’s in most spots. Temperatures should break records tonight.

Current Record Low Tonight : Mobile (26) Pensacola (29)

A hard freeze warning remains in effect from late tonight through Wednesday morning. This is in effect for inland and coastal locations: Impacts are very cold temperatures resulting in a hard freeze. This can pose a hazard to persons without adequate heat, pets and livestock without shelter, exposed pipes, and unprotected plants. Temperature will fall to around 20 degrees.

A hard freeze watch means temperatures are expected to fall to around 20 degrees late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. These conditions could kill crops and other cold sensitive vegetation. Temperatures such as these can cause exposed water pipes to burst. Make plans to check on elderly neighbors to make sure they have adequate heat. Area shelters should make preparations for extra demand.

Everyone should take adequate safety precautions with their heating systems and make sure to utilize carbon monoxide detectors in enclosed spaces. Extra caution should be used with portable space heaters. Make sure space heaters are not left unattended and are not used near flammable materials such as curtains or bed coverings.


Record Breaking Cold

November 17th, 2014 at 3:06 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

freezeFreeze Watch for tomorrow night…
Possible record lows the next two nights…

Unseasonably cold air will continue to track into the forecast area this evening and tonight. Wind chill values in the upper teens are expected by early tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be close to records tonight, and should break records tomorrow night.

Current Record lows Tonight: Mobile (25) Pensacola (27)
Current Record Low Tomorrow night: Mobile (26) Pensacola (29)

From the Mobile NWS:

A hard freeze watch remains in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. This is in effect for inland locations: Greene (MS), Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia counties in Alabama. Impacts are very cold temperatures resulting in a hard freeze. This can pose a hazard to persons without adequate heat, pets and livestock without shelter, exposed pipes, and unprotected plants. Temperature will fall to around 20 degrees.

A hard freeze watch means temperatures are expected to fall to around 20 degrees late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. These conditions could kill crops and other cold sensitive vegetation. Temperatures such as these can cause exposed water pipes to burst. Make plans to check on elderly neighbors to make sure they have adequate heat. Area shelters should make preparations for extra demand.


Much Cooler Weather on the Way

October 29th, 2014 at 3:24 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

Showers and a few thundershowers tracked through the area on this Wednesday, along a significant fall front. Look for rain chances to decrease rapidly tonight. Temperatures turn much cooler with a low in the lower to middle 50’s. Thursday and Friday will both be sunny with highs in the lower 70’s. Halloween evening, expect temperatures in the upper 60’s falling into the upper 50’s by 8pm. It will be clear and cool for the trick-or-treaters. Some much colder air arrives for the weekend. Expect highs near 60 and lows in the 30’s Saturday night. This may be the first frost of the season for most inland spots.


Update on Gulf Tropical Wave

September 12th, 2014 at 8:51 pm by under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather

modA disorganized tropical low is now entering the Gulf of Mexico near Fort Myers, FL. This feature is significantly sheared by strong winds in the upper levels. The atmospheric moisture is also rather dry. The National Hurricane Center is predicting a 20% chance of development over the weekend. There is a slightly higher 30% chance of development early next week as it heads west over the Gulf. While water temperatures are very warm, a hostile upper environment will make any development slow to occur. There is a reasonable chance that the tropical moisture from this wave could get pulled into our area early next week, increasing rain chances.

Tropical Storm Edouard is in the open waters of the Atlantic. This system will gradually strengthen over the weekend. It’s not expected to impact any land areas in the extended forecast.