A disorganized tropical low is now entering the Gulf of Mexico near Fort Myers, FL. This feature is significantly sheared by strong winds in the upper levels. The atmospheric moisture is also rather dry. The National Hurricane Center is predicting a 20% chance of development over the weekend. There is a slightly higher 30% chance of development early next week as it heads west over the Gulf. While water temperatures are very warm, a hostile upper environment will make any development slow to occur. There is a reasonable chance that the tropical moisture from this wave could get pulled into our area early next week, increasing rain chances.
Tropical Storm Edouard is in the open waters of the Atlantic. This system will gradually strengthen over the weekend. It’s not expected to impact any land areas in the extended forecast.
Mobile (WALA) – A tropical disturbance labeled as investigation 92L that is moving west over the Florida Peninsula will soon be in the Gulf of Mexico. Once there, the system will have warm 86°+ water to work with, but strong upper-level wind shear should hamper it’s development.
Because of that, the National Hurricane Center is keeping the risk of this system developing into a full-blown tropical system low, 30% for the next five days.
Regardless of what it ultimately becomes it will have essentially the same impact on the Gulf Coast: rain. The system should continue due west in the Gulf through the weekend before beginning to turn north due to a front moving down to the Gulf Coast. That front will likely grab the tropical moisture increasing our rain chances for several days. Accumulation models are forecasting a possible 2″-4″ of rain especially for our coastal areas.
So the bottom line for 92L is not to worry about a hurricane, strong winds, or storm surge just make sure you’re ready for some rain.
Mobile (WALA) – Mother nature has a way of balancing things out. We’ve seen that this year with the hurricane season across the Atlantic and the Pacific.
In the Atlantic we’ve had four named storms; three off the east coast of the U.S. and Dolly which made landfall on the east coast of Mexico.
It’s been another story in the Eastern Pacific where there have 15 named storms. It’s been very busy and continues to be with the 15th named storm, Odile forming today.
Odile is forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane and make landfall near Cabo San Lucas on the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. That could draw more moisture up into the desert southwest.
So why is it so busy in the Pacific, but so quiet in the Atlantic? In the tropical Atlantic the water temperatures are below normal, which doesn’t help tropical formation. As you can guess the water temperatures across the Eastern Pacific are quite warm and can easily sustain and strengthen tropical systems.
Another big factor limiting storms in the Atlantic has been strong wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear rips the tops off of developing tropical systems.
Meanwhile, in the Pacific, wind shear has been low, especially over the areas of the warmest water temperatures creating a “hot spot” for tropical formation southwest of Mexico.
We don’t see any major changes in these conditions in the Atlantic or the Pacific as we get closer to the end of hurricane season.
We know September is the busiest month of hurricane season. One-third of all named storms occur during this month. We have had Dolly, which quickly flared up in the Southwestern Gulf and moved into Mexico, but across the rest of the tropics it is extremely quiet for this time of year.
It’s quiet because the tropical waves coming off of Africa continue to run into several problems. The first one is, the water temperatures, which are colder than normal.
There is also dry air across much of the tropical Atlantic. Tropical systems need a lot of moisture, and it just isn’t there.
Storms also need low wind shear, but there is strong wind shear across much of the Atlantic and right into the Caribbean.
So any storms trying to form farther out will have a difficult time reaching the Gulf of Mexico. For a storm to affect us it would likely take a system that develops or redevelops in the Gulf itself.
There’s a lot of factors working against tropical systems even at the height of hurricane season and it’s likely these conditions will persist through the rest of hurricane season. Let’s keep our fingers crossed! It may well be a very quiet year!
We know September begins just like July and August left off; very hot and very humid. Temperatures average around 90 degrees for highs and 72 for morning lows and it can stay hot through a good bit of the month. The all-time September high of 101 was set on the 16th.
But as we go through September there are changes and things will improve. Fall begins on the 22nd , around the time when we usually start having some fronts moving through. The average high drops to 84 by the end of the month and average morning lows to 63. The record September low, set on the 29th, is 42 degrees.
Fall Heat Hiccups
As we move through September big changes begin to occur in the second half of the month. The caveat here is that October is not necessarily cool, there’s always a few hiccups and the heat will come back once or twice. Record highs in October are above 90 for 16 of the 31 days and the all-time record is a sweltering 95 degrees.
We’ll be going through some changes during the next month and a half to two months, but generally they’re changes for the better as we move into fall.
The summer pattern keeps rolling along here in mid August in the Deep South. We are seeing another hot and humid day. Afternoon temperatures were in the low 90’s again on this Monday. We are tracking storms popping up over central Mississippi. All the activity will be moving from the northwest to the southeast this evening. Rain chances remain scattered up until around midnight.
Another round of strong/numerous afternoon storms are expected on Tuesday ahead of a weak cool front. This boundary should enter the forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday. We expect lower rain chances and slightly lower humidity by the middle of the week. This front is not expected to be a strong or as cool as the three record breaking fronts we saw in July.
Tropical weather is fairly quiet. We have one wave off the Cape Verdes that has a low chance of development over the next five days. It’s not currently a threat to the U.S.
Facebook: Meteorologist Jason Smith
We set a new record low in Mobile this morning at 65 degrees. This front is our third significant boundary this July. We have seen 8 nights below 70 degrees this month. Some fantastic heat relief is here again, with much lower humidity. Our coolest night may actually be tonight with lows in the mid 60’s along I-10. The current record is 66 degrees, and will likely be broken. We may also be in record country Thursday night. Drier air hangs around until Friday. Scattered storms return for the weekend. Temps will still be fairly comfortable into early next week, as the front lingers along the coast.
In the tropics, a disturbance midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands has a medium chance of developing. The system is moving west, and should turn more WNW as it approaches the northern Leeward islands. If this forms into Tropical Storm Bertha, the track will likely stay east of the U.S., based on the current forecast.
We have a slight risk of severe t-storms this evening along and ahead of a cold front. The front should be into the northern sections of the area by early evening, and then offshore by daybreak Tuesday. These stronger than average thunderstorms will contain frequent lightning and gusty winds.
This front will be our third significant boundary this July. Some fantastic heat relief is on the way. Dewpoints will drop 15 degrees between now and Tuesday, and our heat index will also be about 15 degrees lower ! Our coolest night should be Tuesday night with lows in the mid 60’s along I-10. The current record is 67 degrees, and will possibly be broken. Drier air hangs around until Friday. Scattered storms return for the weekend.
In the tropics, a disturbance s’west of the Cape Verde Islands has a medium chance of developing by Wednesday. The system is moving west, and has a high chance of developing in the next 5 days.
Facebook: Meteorologist Jason Smith
The old stalled front continues to linger over the forecast area and the Gulf Coast Region. The upper low has shifted a little more to the east today. The atmosphere has dried out a little so the t-storm activity is much lower this evening. Scattered chances remain this week, with the driest day being Thursday in the extended range. Temperatures will remain near normal for July with highs near 92, and lows near 73. Heat and humidity will continue to be the main theme.
A small low pressure are located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is getting better organized. This feature is now Tropical Depression #2 As of the 4pm advisory. The environment ahead of this feature is not conducive for rapid strengthening.
A substantial round of t-storms moved across the heart of the forecast area today. These storms were generated along a prefrontal trough ahead of a main cold front. Rain chances drop rapidly this evening. The surface front should make it to the coast by midnight tonight. Rain chances will be lower on Wednesday as the front gradually drifts through the area and offshore. We do expect a small window of drier air. Humidity will be noticeably lower during the day, with a high near 89. Lows on Wednesday night should be in the mid 60’s along I-10. The current record is 65 degrees set in 1886, and we could possibly tie or break it!
The front quickly shifts back across the area and the humidity returns on Friday. Long range models hint at the idea of a low pressure area developing in Arkansas. This should bring back good chances of scattered t-storms by the weekend. The tropics are quiet.