All aboard a late fall roller coaster as we head towards Thanksgiving!
First stop will be a sharp drop in temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning. We’ll wake up to lows in the upper to mid 30s, but that won’t be the half of it! The other half will be strong northerly winds making it feel much colder! Those blustery conditions will last into the afternoon with highs only in the 50s and biting winds all day.
The next stop will be a developing system off the coast of Texas. This low will deepen sharply and create a lot of rain as it tracks across the northern Gulf. We should start seeing rain by Monday evening in western areas. The rain will increase and spread east overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.
The third stop on this coaster will be a sharp drop in temps next Wednesday. As that strong low works up the East coast a strong flow of chilly northern air will invade turning temps upside down Wednesday with a mild morning turning into a cold and blustery afternoon in the 40s!
That will leave us with chilly mornings in the 30s Thanksgiving day and black Friday, but both days will be sunny and pretty!
Temperatures were quite warm, with a high in the mid to upper 70’s on this Friday. The front is slightly ahead of schedule and a few spotty showers popped up on radar in the western sections of our forecast area.
The warm trend won’t last, however, as we get into the weekend. We do expect a few scattered showers along the front late tonight and into Saturday. Rain totals should be fairly light. Chances are only 40 %.
The surface front will actually clear the area very early Saturday, but the cold air surge will be slightly delayed. Winds will pick up out of the north by afternoon. Temperatures will drop significantly by Saturday night. Look for a cold and breezy situation Saturday night and Sunday. Lows will be in the mid 30’s Saturday night. Highs will struggle to make the mid 50’s on Sunday. A light frost freeze event is possible Sunday night.
Another rain system, with the potential of significant totals, affects the area on Tuesday with a low pressure set up in the northern Gulf. The long range forecast looks colder and clear for Thanksgiving. More freezing temperatures are possible at night late next week.
Temperatures will mainly be in the lower 50’s tonight in many areas across the Gulf Coast. This is slightly higher than the average low of 47 degrees for the date. A few clouds will increase tonight and into Thursday. The forecast remains dry through late Thursday with strong ridging in the atmosphere. Temperatures will be quite mild, with a high in the low 70’s tomorrow.
Ahead of the surface cold front, temperatures will be unusually mild on Friday. Many areas will see highs in the middle 70’s. The warm trend won’t last, however, as we get into the weekend.
Showers, Then Colder
We do expect a few scattered showers along the front on Saturday. Rain totals should be fairly light. Temperatures will drop significantly by afternoon. Look for a cold and breezy situation Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures should be just above freezing at night Saturday and Sunday.
A grey and gloomy weekend here on the Gulf Coast. Rain will threaten out ahead of a front that is approaching from the northwest. That front is moving slow though, and should allow us to have a relatively dry and warm weekend before the rain comes in earnest Sunday night.
The highest rain chances will be overnight Sunday into Monday morning as the cold front arrives. Some thunderstorms are possible, but severe weather will be unlikely in our area.
Also, the cold air will lag behind the cold front, so Monday will still be pretty warm before some cooler air moves in Monday night. This cold front doesn’t have nearly the cold air behind it as the last one. No 30s this time, just some 40s Tuesday and Wednesday morning before things warm back up.
An upper disturbance in the s’west upper flow pattern is helping to spark rain showers this afternoon. We are also seeing increasing moisture around a weakening Atlantic ridge, and a weak surface low/warm front in the Gulf. Most rain totals will be less than .25.” However, many spots have seen passing showers and measureable rain so far. Temperatures are in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s this afternoon
Rain chances drop significantly this evening. Only isolated chances are in the forecast for Saturday. Temperatures will remain mild with highs in the mid 70’s. Overall, the forecast looks great for the first half of the weekend.
Next Good Rain Chance…
A good chance of rain is expected ahead of the next front late Sunday and early Monday. A few thunderstorms are possible, but widespread severe weather is not likely at this time. The air will be cooler behind the front, but freezing temperatures are not expected…
We finally got back into the 60’s today. A few clouds are also starting to filter back in. The same high pressure ridge that brought us this Canadian air mass is sliding east. As the winds shift, temperatures will be much more comfortable overnight. Lows will be in the 50-55 degree range tonight.
A weak low pressure area will move across the northern Gulf on Friday. This feature will generate scattered showers on Friday. We are also seeing a couple of upper disturbances tracking close enough to us to enhance lift. Rain chances are 50% along the coast and the Panhandle. Inland areas will see a 30% chance of showers. The rain should be fairly light.
Lower chances (20%) are expected Saturday as the low tracks towards the Florida Peninsula. A good chance of rain is expected ahead of the next front late Sunday and early Monday. A few thunderstorms are possible, but widespread severe weather is not likely at this time. The air will be colder behind the front, but freezing temperatures are not expected..
It was an especially cold start to the day today. We did make it down to 32 degrees early this morning at Mobile Regional Airport. Breezy conditions have continued as expected. Our daytime high so far is only in the mid 50’s in many areas. Skies are mostly clear. Look for another cold one tonight…
A freeze warning is in effect again for tonight. Coastal lows will be in the mid to lower 30’s, with a freeze along and north of I-10. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20’s for George, Greene, Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, and Escambia counties. Calmer wind conditions tonight will be ideal frost formation.
A Bit Milder
We finally get back into the 60’s on Thursday. Clouds start to filter back in. The same high pressure ridge that brought us this Canadian air mass will weaken and slide east. Winds will turn to the s’east and spotty showers are possible Friday and Saturday. A good chance of rain is expected ahead of the next front on Sunday and Monday. More cold air will bring the possibility of a light freeze again next week.
Computer models continue to predict a very strong cold air blast. The surface front tracked through around lunchtime. The air behind the front is significantly colder. We expect windy conditions, with falling temperatures. Winds are in the 15-20 mph range, with gusts to 25 mph. A wind advisory is in effect. Temperatures will be in the 50’s before sunset.
Lows will be in the low 30’s, with a freeze along and north of I-10 tonight. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20’s for George, Greene, Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, and Escambia counties. Breezy conditions will keep frost form forming, especially closer to the coast.
From the NWS Mobile:
A freeze warning is in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am cst Wednesday and a freeze watch is in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday Morning. Expect temperatures falling below 32 degrees around midnight tonight and continuing through sunrise Wednesday for most inland areas north of the coast. Widespread freezing temperatures are expected again Wednesday night and early thursday morning.
Impacts: temperature sensitive plants will be affected, along with outdoor pets and exposed plumbing, especially along and north of highway 84.
Precautionary/preparedness actions: A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops, new growth, and other sensitive vegetation.
A freeze watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible.
We are enjoying a really nice afternoon, with plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the middle 70’s. A few clouds will be around tonight ahead of a strong cold front. Temps will range to near 50 degrees tonight. The weather pattern stays unchanged through early Tuesday
Front Passes Through Tuesday
Computer models continue to predict a very strong cold air blast. The surface front tracking through around lunchtime Tuesday won’t bring any rain. The air behind the front will be significantly colder. We expect windy conditions by Tuesday afternoon, with falling temperatures.
Freeze Inland Tuesday Night
Lows will be in the low 30’s, with a freeze inland Tuesday night. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20’s for George, Greene, Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, and Escambia counties. Breezy conditions will keep frost form forming, especially closer to the coast. Look for highs in the upper 50’s Wednesday, with heavier frost event by Wednesday night.
Crisp mornings and warm afternoons… That’s the pattern we’re in and will stay in as we move into the first part of the work week. In the 50s Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning, while the afternoons are in the 70s.
Then a change blows in….
A powerful cold front will blast in Tuesday afternoon. This front probably won’t bring any rain for us, but it will bringing a deep Canadian high pressure system behind it. The strength of the high pressure will create blustery conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday.
In fact, highs on Wednesday will only reach the mid 50s and with those winds it will feel far chillier than that!
As those winds settle down Wednesday night temps will plummet! Widespread 30s across our area with a light freeze possible for inland areas!