We have a slight risk of severe t-storms this evening along and ahead of a cold front. The front should be into the northern sections of the area by early evening, and then offshore by daybreak Tuesday. These stronger than average thunderstorms will contain frequent lightning and gusty winds.
This front will be our third significant boundary this July. Some fantastic heat relief is on the way. Dewpoints will drop 15 degrees between now and Tuesday, and our heat index will also be about 15 degrees lower ! Our coolest night should be Tuesday night with lows in the mid 60’s along I-10. The current record is 67 degrees, and will possibly be broken. Drier air hangs around until Friday. Scattered storms return for the weekend.
In the tropics, a disturbance s’west of the Cape Verde Islands has a medium chance of developing by Wednesday. The system is moving west, and has a high chance of developing in the next 5 days.
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The old stalled front continues to linger over the forecast area and the Gulf Coast Region. The upper low has shifted a little more to the east today. The atmosphere has dried out a little so the t-storm activity is much lower this evening. Scattered chances remain this week, with the driest day being Thursday in the extended range. Temperatures will remain near normal for July with highs near 92, and lows near 73. Heat and humidity will continue to be the main theme.
A small low pressure are located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is getting better organized. This feature is now Tropical Depression #2 As of the 4pm advisory. The environment ahead of this feature is not conducive for rapid strengthening.
A substantial round of t-storms moved across the heart of the forecast area today. These storms were generated along a prefrontal trough ahead of a main cold front. Rain chances drop rapidly this evening. The surface front should make it to the coast by midnight tonight. Rain chances will be lower on Wednesday as the front gradually drifts through the area and offshore. We do expect a small window of drier air. Humidity will be noticeably lower during the day, with a high near 89. Lows on Wednesday night should be in the mid 60’s along I-10. The current record is 65 degrees set in 1886, and we could possibly tie or break it!
The front quickly shifts back across the area and the humidity returns on Friday. Long range models hint at the idea of a low pressure area developing in Arkansas. This should bring back good chances of scattered t-storms by the weekend. The tropics are quiet.
We saw a significant increase in moisture in the atmosphere today. A break has developed in the upper ridge, and we saw a weak sagging front in central and northern Alabama. As a result a nice round of showers and storms swept through the area, dumping a half inch to an inch of rain in most spots.
Mid-level ridging rebuilds by Friday and the weekend. Drier air should move in, leaving us hot ! Rain chances will be lower by Saturday and Sunday, and this is good news for outdoor events like the Blue Angels. Daytime highs will be in the low to mid 90’s, and overnight lows will work their way back up into the low to mid 70’s. The tropics are quiet.
Long range models hint at the idea of another front arriving late next week. This should bring back scattered t-storms and perhaps slight lower temps by Thursday and Friday.
The heat is here in full force on this Monday. Most spots were reporting low-mid 90’s as of 3 pm. Heat Index values were in the 100-105 range in many areas. More heat is expected Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 90’s. Heat Indices on Tuesday will be 104-108 ! We are seeing no activity on radar, and things should stay dry through Tuesday. The ridging breaks down slightly on Wednesday, and isolated showers return. There is a slightly higher scattered chance of rain on Thursday. We return to typical summer conditions for the 4th of July on Thursday, with highs bear 92 and isolated t-storms in the afternoon.
There is one area of disturbed weather in the tropical that we are currently tracking. It’s no threat to us. There is an area of low pressure 125 miles east of Melbourne, Florida in the Atlantic. Environmental conditions are more favorable for development. A slight increase in t-shower activity could result in the formation of a depression. If the system becomes a storm, the name would be Arthur. The system will head closer to the Florida Atlantic Coast, and then turn towards the Carolinas on the 3rd and the 4th.
It certainly is a hot week, with highs in the low 90’s each day and only a few very brief t-showers. One shower popped up over west Mobile around lunchtime today, and then dissipated about 20 minutes later. The upper atmosphere is not supporting long lasting t-showers. Storm motion is very slow from east to west.
An upper level ridge will remain in place over the forecast area, along with weak surface high pressure centered just to our east. A decent sea breeze sets up each afternoon this week yet, moisture values remain moderate to low. Daytime heating and sea breeze activity will be enough to overcome the ridging, resulting in pop up afternoon and evening t-storms.
The best chances of rain will be just north of I-10. Daytime highs stay at or above 90 through early next week. The upper ridge breaks down a little by the end of the week, resulting in slightly higher chances of afternoon t-storms.
A Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect until Friday afternoon. A deep moist southerly flow will continue across our area, while a mid to upper low pressure system spins near northern Louisina. Rainfall rates of up to 2” per hour are possible in the heaviest bands. We expect 2”-4” of rain between now and Friday, mainly over the western sections of the area. 3”-5” storm totals are possible area wide through Saturday, especially along I-10 and the coast. Rain chances look much lower for Sunday, and into next week.
Sunshine was out in full force today, with very warm conditions. Most places were in the mid to upper 80’s this afternoon. Temperatures were about 5 degrees above normal for our daytime highs. This dry and warm trend looks to continue through mid-week. We will see more nice weather as things dry out in the wake of last week’s historic flooding.
Southerly winds and moisture begin to roll back in on Thursday, Scattered showers return by Friday as we see moisture increasing. The chances of scattered rains will continue into the weekend. We do not expect flooding rains this weekend. The moisture levels are fairly high, but we do not have any significant frontal features to force significant rains.
We continue to experience a very unusual and dangerous flooding situation throughout our area. Significant flooding has been reported all along the I-10 corridor. We have reported about 12 inches of rain in both Mobile and Pensacola, with locally higher amounts. Doppler estimates show possible 22-26 inch totals near Perdido Bay. South Baldwin County has seen some of the worst flooding. Fish River crested this morning above 23 feet, and is now falling. This was a record crest, higher than we saw during Hurricanes Ivan and Danny. Here is an excellent report on this event from the Mobile NWS: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/?n=flashflood_04292014
Light rain bands were still impacting the Panhandle as of 2pm. However, drier air is working in rapidly and rainfall rates are now much lower. Sunshine is reported over Mobile and Baldwin County. River flooding will continue to be a major problem through this evening along our local streams. Many roads have issues due to sink holes and erosion.
Drier air is working in! A series of upper level disturbances will generate a chance for light showers tonight, and again on Thursday night. Only light rain is anticipated and we don’t expect any increase in the flooding situation. The weekend looks sunny and fantastic.
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A significant severe weather threat is in place for our area starting later this evening. A strong line of storms will track in from the west and northwest. The threat of severe weather will be mainly after 8pm for areas in Greene, George, and Washington Counties. The overall severe risk is slight. This complex of storms will be moving well ahead of the main surface cold front. Some isolated tornadoes are possible up HW 43 and HW 45 tonight in our area, along with severe t-storms and hail. The main line of storms gets closer to the Mobile area around midnight. The storms will slowly move across the Panhandle by sunrise on Tuesday.
Severe Round Two
The next round of storms is expected midday Tuesday, with the greatest threat of severe weather occurring Tuesday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has us in the moderate risk of severe weather zone. We are especially concerned about tornadoes, specifically long track EF2 and EF3 tornadoes with this second round