As I typed up the seven day forecast for the first full week of 2010 I couldn’t remember ever putting together an outlook that is so cold. Now we certainly get some cold weather from time to time, but what’s different about this week is that we keep getting reinforcing shots of cold air and we stay very cold every day without a break. In fact, it’s likely we will have morning temperatures (North of I-10) in the 20s right through next Sunday. Thankfully, due to a good amount of sun, our afternoon temps won’t be that extreme, with most days climbing into the upper 40s.

As we get towards the end of the week there is an interesting system that could bring us a wintry mix Thursday night to Friday morning. Forecasting wintry weather on the Gulf Coast is a dicey game, especially that far out, but the fact is moisture is moving

A Frigid Week!

 our way when temps will be near the freezing mark. Stay tuned! – Matt Barrentine

The minimum size hail criterion for severe thunderstorms changes from 3/4 inch (penny-size) to 1 inch (quarter-size) nationwide on January 5, 2010.

Previously, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued Severe Thunderstorm Warnings whenever a thunderstorm is forecast to produce wind gusts to 58 miles per hour (50 knots) or greater and/or hail size 3/4 inch (penny-size) diameter or larger. For the past few years, offices that cover areas of Kansas have experimented using a warning criterion of one inch diameter hail. During the spring and early summer of 2009, this experiment expanded to other areas in the Central and Western U.S. Beginning January 5, 2010, the minimum size for severe hail nationwide increases to one inch (quarter-size) diameter. There will not be a change to the wind gust criterion of 58 mph.

This change is based on research indicating significant damage does not occur until hail size reaches 1 inch (quarter-size) in diameter, and as a response to requests by core partners in emergency management and the media. Particularly in areas of the Central U.S., the frequency of severe thunderstorm warnings issued for penny-size and nickel size hail might have desensitized the public to take protective action during a severe thunderstorm warning

In areas that experimented with changing to the one inch hail criterion, media partners stated their user feedback suggests warnings are now more meaningful. In addition, television networks receive fewer viewer complaints from breaking into programming for non-damaging storms.  The Emergency Management community in those areas agreed that warnings carry more weight, and spotters now concentrate on the more significant events.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
135 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009

…LIGHT SNOW VISITS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS…

A RELATIVELY NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW WAS DEPOSITED OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SWATH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHWESTEREN HALF OF STONE
COUNTY…THROUGH SECTIONS OF PERRY…GEORGE…AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN
MISSISSIPPI…CONTINUING ACROSS SECTIONS OF
WASHINGTON…CHOCTAW…AND CLARKE COUNTIES IN ALABAMA.

REPORTS OF ONE INCH OF SHOW CAME IN FROM NEW AUGUSTA
MISSISSIPPI…ALONG WITH SILAS AND COFFEEVILLE IN ALABAMA. WIGGINS
MISSISSIPPI AND THOMASVILLE ALABAMA REPORTED DUSTINGS OF ONE HALF
INCH OR LESS…WHILE THE REMAINING LOCATIONS ALONG THE PATH
EXPERIENCED ONLY LIGHT DUSTINGS TO LIGHT FLURRIES WITH NO
ACCUMULATION.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Jackson, George, and Greene Counties in Mississippi. Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Mobile Inland, and Baldwin Inland are the counties included in the advisory in Alabama. A weak low pressure area in the Central Gulf will pass to our south tonight, creating areas of cold rain across the Gulf Coast before midnight. After midnight, colder air aloft will mix in with the rain and gradually change things over to light snow before ending early Saturday morning.

A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when some minor accumulations may occur, but widespread travel problems are not expected. Soil Temperatures are in the 50’s across our area, so, accumulation will only occur on grassy surfaced areas, cars, rooftops, and other elevated surfaces. Roadways will simple remain wet. Air temperatures will be at or above freezing during the winter precipitation event. It can snow with temperatures as warm as 40 degrees if there is enough cold air aloft. Atmospheric profiles suggest a brief period of light snow across the northern and western portions of our viewing area between 12am and 6am Saturday morning. I expect some minor accumulation out HW 98, especially north and west of Wilmer. And up HW 45 – north of Chunchula. It is possible to see so me west snow flakes mixed with rain in the Mobile metro area late tonight, with no significant accumulations expected.

Models that help us predict wintry precipitation include the 540 thickness line (blue line) and the 850mb zero degree c temperature contour (Purple line). These values do suggest a rain snow line within a narrow precipitation band in our area briefly – late tonight.

Blue line - 540 thickness...Purple line is the 850mb temperature contour

Snow Flakes Friday Night ?

It looks like a cold rain event for Mobile and Pensacola, but we could see a little wintry precipitation in the inland areas late Friday night and Early Saturday morning. A weak surface low will develop in the Gulf and bring rain to our area on Friday evening. Cold air will begin to mix in to our area, especially after midnight. Temperature profiles and thickness values suggest a mix of rain and wet snow in George, Greene, Washington, Clarke, and Monroe Counties. Soil temperatures are well above freezing, and air temperatures will also be very marginal. So, significant accumulation is not expected. A narrow band of an inch or so could occur over the grassy surface areas if we get an enhanced band of persistent precipitation.

For the most part, snow events are rare in our viewing area. Cold air and precipitation typically do not mix in our part of the Deep South. Also, it is a little early in the year to look for snow, according to the climate calendar. However, the last measurable snowfall in the Mobile area did occur on the 18^th of December, 1996. Our last snow event in the inland locations occurred on January 19^th of last year. It is interesting to note that there are some unique similarities in the atmosphere between last year’s event, and this potential event. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/imageview.php?file=011908Snow/19Jan08_SnowfallEvent_Final.jpg

The Gulf Coast is in for a very wet night and it could be stormy at times. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for tides running 3-5 feet above normal. A Flash Flood Watch is also in effect for the inland areas.

A non-tropical low pressure area has formed over the Gulf south of Louisiana and its tracking our way. Winds are easterly this evening and temperatures are quite cool in the lower 50’s along I-10. However, rain will pick up in intensity and temperatures will rise overnight.  A strong southerly wind flow will develop tonight as a warm front lifts across the Gulf Coast. Once the warmer air moves in, a slight risk of severe t-storms will be in place for the coastal areas, mainly after midnight.

The surface low will move across our area tomorrow morning, and improving weather conditions are expected by tomorrow afternoon. Tides will fall to normal levels as winds increase out of the west and northwest by the evening. Expect chilly weather and quiet conditions to end the week.

The late season tropical event named Ida made a direct hit on our section of the Gulf Coast, but the effects were relatively minor. Ida peaked as a category II Hurricane with 100mph winds as it entered the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday around noon. Ida steadily weakened throughout Sunday night and Monday as she raced towards the northern Gulf Coast. Strong s’west wind shear and cooler waters took the punch out of this system as it gained latitude.

Tropical storm force winds, with some impressive gusts, were recorded by most the coastal reporting stations across our area. The peak wind speed was a 62 mph gust reported at Alabama Port. The winds were most intense between 9pm and midnight as Ida neared the coast with 60-65 mph sustained winds. Most of the intense winds stayed just offshore. This tropical storm weakened steadily in the early morning hours on Tuesday. Winds were reduced to 50 mph at 3 am. And, we saw winds of 45mph by 6am as the system drifted over Mobile Bay. Ida was classified as extra-tropical by 9am as it stalled near Foley, AL.

Storm tide values averaged 3-4 feet above predicted tide levels, and most coastal flooding was relatively minor. Power outages were spotty. And most areas saw 3-5” of rain with minor street flooding reported. All in all, there were just a few limbs to pick up and some leaves to rake for most Gulf Coast residents.

Rain totals from the NWS Mobile

ALBERTA,AL (C)           3.06      ANDALUSIA,AL(C)          --

ATMORE,AL (C)            5.41      BEATRICE,AL(C)           --

BAY MINETTE,AL (C)       4.00      BIG CREEK LAKE,AL(D)     --

BARRY STEAM,AL (D)         --      BROOKLEY,AL (A)        2.86

BLACKWATER RIV,AL(D)     2.86      BOGUE HOMO,MS(D)       3.04

BUCKATUNNA,MS(C)         3.10      BUCKATUNNA CK,MS(D)      --

BREWTON-MURDER CK,AL(D)  4.14      BAKER,FL (D)             --

BREWTON,AL(C)            5.50      BAYOU LA BATRE,AL (D)    --

BUTLER,AL(C)               --      BEAUMONT,MS (C)          --

CHATOM,AL(C)               --      CRESTVIEW,FL(A)        4.39

CENTURY,FL(D)            1.66      CLAIBORNE,AL (D)       0.00

COFFEEVILLE,AL (D)         --      CODEN,AL (C)           3.90

CRESTVIEW,FL (D)         3.73      DAUPHIN ISLAND,AL (C)  2.65

DOTHAN,AL (A)            1.16      DESTIN,FL(A)           2.21

EVERGREEN,AL(C)          3.35      EVERGREEN,AL (D)       3.16 (MURDER CK)

EVERGREEN,AL(A)          3.55      FAIRHOPE,AL(C)         3.02

FOWL RIVER,AL(D)           --

FISH RIVER,AL(D)         3.05      GEORGIANNA,AL(C)         --

GREENVILLE,AL(C)         3.15      HIGHLAND HOME,AL(C)      --

HURLBURT FLD,FL(A)       1.91      JACKSON,AL(C)          2.50

LEAKESVILLE,MS(D)        0.00

MCLAIN,MS(D)             2.38      MILTON,FL(D)           4.15

MILLIGAN,FL(D)           3.55      MILLERS FERRY,AL(D)    0.95

MOLINO,FL(D)             3.97      MERRILL,MS(D)          2.79

MELVIN,AL(C)               --      MAGNOLIA RIVER,AL(D)   4.22

MOSSEY HEAD,FL(D)        3.81      NEW AUGUSTA,MS(D)      3.25

NICEVILLE,FL(C)          3.10      POINT CADET,MS(D)        --

PCOLA-11ML CRK,FL(D)     4.88      PINE APPLE,AL(C)         --

RIVER FALLS,AL(D)        2.10      ROBERTSDALE,AL(C)      3.53

RUNNELSTOWN,MS(D)        3.29

SHOAL RIVER,FL(D)        3.73

SNOW HILL,AL(D)            --      SPRING HILL,AL (D)       --

THOMASVILLE,AL(C)        3.49      VESTRY-RED CK,MS(D)      --

WIGGINS,MS(D)            1.60      WIGGINS,FLNT CK,MS(C)    --

WALLACE,AL(C)            4.15      WAYNESBORO,MS(C)       4.05

WHATLEY,AL(C)              --

Tropical Storm Ida continues to head our way… The center of Ida is located at 29.5 North and 88.8 West.  Maximum sustained winds are at 60mph. The system is moving to the North at 10 mph. A decrease in forward speed, and a turn to the n’east is expected tonight. Ida is gradual becoming extratopical.

The weakening trend will continue throughout tonight as Ida tracks over cooler waters in the  northern Gulf, and moves ashore. 4-6 inches of rain is expected, especially tonight. Also, we will see tides 4-5 feet above normal along the coast. High tide will occur near daybreak Tuesday. Winds gusting to tropical storm force are expected tonight and Tuesday morning.  So far, tides have been running 2-3 feet above normal, as of midnight tonight.

Winds have gusted as high as 62 mph at Alabama Port. We have seen sustained winds over tropical storm force at many locations in our area.

Here it is, November 9 and we’re having to deal with tropical weather!

As our Chief Meterologist Jason Smith was explaining during an afternoon meeting in the newsroom, this is an extraordinary event.  When the temperature in the Gulf starts dropping, it robs tropical systems of the energy they need to thrive and survive.  That’s what is happening, but it will still leave us with a lot of rain and high wind especially Monday night into Tuesday morning.

BTW, we’ll be offering extended coverage tonight.  Our 5 p.m. newscast will stretch until 6:30.  The 9 p.m. newscast will go until 10:30.

It’s been fun watching certain “out of town” media come to town and try to become instant experts.  I just watched a live interview with Dr. “Saron” Hollinger of the Baldwin County school system. 

It made me think of a reporter who was dropped into Mobile as Katrina approached, doing a live broadcast in front of the U.S.S. Alabama.  She said, “The ship behind me has decided to wait it out, and remain docked here”.   That’s true.  It didn’t move .

Ida is now a tropical storm. The center of Ida is located at 27.5 North and 88.4 West.  Maximum sustained winds are at 70mph. The system is moving to the NNW at 18 mph. The weakening trend will continue throughout today as Ida tracks over cooler waters in the central and northern Gulf. The system will also encounter stronger wind shear today. 

Quite a bit of rain is expected on today, tonight, and Tuesday. Also, we will see tides 3-6 feet above normal along the coast by tonight, with tropical storm force winds. We will see spotty power outages, along with limbs and debris on the roads. Travel tonight is not advised.

This center is now poorly organized as it is racing our way. With the 18 mph forward speed, and the center located about 180 miles south of Dauphin Island as of 1 pm, we may see landfall just before midnight tonight. The computer models hint at landfall in Mobile County or Baldwin County, as a strong tropical storm.