September 12th, 2014 at 1:31 pm by Matt Barrentine under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather
Tropical Disturbance Models
Mobile (WALA) – A tropical disturbance labeled as investigation 92L that is moving west over the Florida Peninsula will soon be in the Gulf of Mexico. Once there, the system will have warm 86°+ water to work with, but strong upper-level wind shear should hamper it’s development.
Because of that, the National Hurricane Center is keeping the risk of this system developing into a full-blown tropical system low, 30% for the next five days.
Regardless of what it ultimately becomes it will have essentially the same impact on the Gulf Coast: rain. The system should continue due west in the Gulf through the weekend before beginning to turn north due to a front moving down to the Gulf Coast. That front will likely grab the tropical moisture increasing our rain chances for several days. Accumulation models are forecasting a possible 2″-4″ of rain especially for our coastal areas.
So the bottom line for 92L is not to worry about a hurricane, strong winds, or storm surge just make sure you’re ready for some rain.
September 3rd, 2014 at 4:37 pm by Matt Barrentine under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather
Peak of the Season?
We know September is the busiest month of hurricane season. One-third of all named storms occur during this month. We have had Dolly, which quickly flared up in the Southwestern Gulf and moved into Mexico, but across the rest of the tropics it is extremely quiet for this time of year.
It’s quiet because the tropical waves coming off of Africa continue to run into several problems. The first one is, the water temperatures, which are colder than normal.
There is also dry air across much of the tropical Atlantic. Tropical systems need a lot of moisture, and it just isn’t there.
Storms also need low wind shear, but there is strong wind shear across much of the Atlantic and right into the Caribbean.
So any storms trying to form farther out will have a difficult time reaching the Gulf of Mexico. For a storm to affect us it would likely take a system that develops or redevelops in the Gulf itself.
There’s a lot of factors working against tropical systems even at the height of hurricane season and it’s likely these conditions will persist through the rest of hurricane season. Let’s keep our fingers crossed! It may well be a very quiet year!
September 3rd, 2014 at 4:31 pm by Matt Barrentine under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather
We know September begins just like July and August left off; very hot and very humid. Temperatures average around 90 degrees for highs and 72 for morning lows and it can stay hot through a good bit of the month. The all-time September high of 101 was set on the 16th.
But as we go through September there are changes and things will improve. Fall begins on the 22nd , around the time when we usually start having some fronts moving through. The average high drops to 84 by the end of the month and average morning lows to 63. The record September low, set on the 29th, is 42 degrees.
Fall Heat Hiccups
As we move through September big changes begin to occur in the second half of the month. The caveat here is that October is not necessarily cool, there’s always a few hiccups and the heat will come back once or twice. Record highs in October are above 90 for 16 of the 31 days and the all-time record is a sweltering 95 degrees.
We’ll be going through some changes during the next month and a half to two months, but generally they’re changes for the better as we move into fall.
August 11th, 2014 at 2:14 pm by Jason Smith under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather
The summer pattern keeps rolling along here in mid August in the Deep South. We are seeing another hot and humid day. Afternoon temperatures were in the low 90’s again on this Monday. We are tracking storms popping up over central Mississippi. All the activity will be moving from the northwest to the southeast this evening. Rain chances remain scattered up until around midnight.
Another round of strong/numerous afternoon storms are expected on Tuesday ahead of a weak cool front. This boundary should enter the forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday. We expect lower rain chances and slightly lower humidity by the middle of the week. This front is not expected to be a strong or as cool as the three record breaking fronts we saw in July.
Tropical weather is fairly quiet. We have one wave off the Cape Verdes that has a low chance of development over the next five days. It’s not currently a threat to the U.S.
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July 30th, 2014 at 4:03 pm by Jason Smith under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather
We set a new record low in Mobile this morning at 65 degrees. This front is our third significant boundary this July. We have seen 8 nights below 70 degrees this month. Some fantastic heat relief is here again, with much lower humidity. Our coolest night may actually be tonight with lows in the mid 60’s along I-10. The current record is 66 degrees, and will likely be broken. We may also be in record country Thursday night. Drier air hangs around until Friday. Scattered storms return for the weekend. Temps will still be fairly comfortable into early next week, as the front lingers along the coast.
In the tropics, a disturbance midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands has a medium chance of developing. The system is moving west, and should turn more WNW as it approaches the northern Leeward islands. If this forms into Tropical Storm Bertha, the track will likely stay east of the U.S., based on the current forecast.
July 28th, 2014 at 2:45 pm by Jason Smith under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather
We have a slight risk of severe t-storms this evening along and ahead of a cold front. The front should be into the northern sections of the area by early evening, and then offshore by daybreak Tuesday. These stronger than average thunderstorms will contain frequent lightning and gusty winds.
This front will be our third significant boundary this July. Some fantastic heat relief is on the way. Dewpoints will drop 15 degrees between now and Tuesday, and our heat index will also be about 15 degrees lower ! Our coolest night should be Tuesday night with lows in the mid 60’s along I-10. The current record is 67 degrees, and will possibly be broken. Drier air hangs around until Friday. Scattered storms return for the weekend.
In the tropics, a disturbance s’west of the Cape Verde Islands has a medium chance of developing by Wednesday. The system is moving west, and has a high chance of developing in the next 5 days.
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July 21st, 2014 at 3:45 pm by Jason Smith under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather
The old stalled front continues to linger over the forecast area and the Gulf Coast Region. The upper low has shifted a little more to the east today. The atmosphere has dried out a little so the t-storm activity is much lower this evening. Scattered chances remain this week, with the driest day being Thursday in the extended range. Temperatures will remain near normal for July with highs near 92, and lows near 73. Heat and humidity will continue to be the main theme.
A small low pressure are located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is getting better organized. This feature is now Tropical Depression #2 As of the 4pm advisory. The environment ahead of this feature is not conducive for rapid strengthening.
July 15th, 2014 at 2:36 pm by Jason Smith under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather
A substantial round of t-storms moved across the heart of the forecast area today. These storms were generated along a prefrontal trough ahead of a main cold front. Rain chances drop rapidly this evening. The surface front should make it to the coast by midnight tonight. Rain chances will be lower on Wednesday as the front gradually drifts through the area and offshore. We do expect a small window of drier air. Humidity will be noticeably lower during the day, with a high near 89. Lows on Wednesday night should be in the mid 60’s along I-10. The current record is 65 degrees set in 1886, and we could possibly tie or break it!
The front quickly shifts back across the area and the humidity returns on Friday. Long range models hint at the idea of a low pressure area developing in Arkansas. This should bring back good chances of scattered t-storms by the weekend. The tropics are quiet.
July 10th, 2014 at 6:49 pm by Jason Smith under FOX10 Stormtracker Weather
We saw a significant increase in moisture in the atmosphere today. A break has developed in the upper ridge, and we saw a weak sagging front in central and northern Alabama. As a result a nice round of showers and storms swept through the area, dumping a half inch to an inch of rain in most spots.
Mid-level ridging rebuilds by Friday and the weekend. Drier air should move in, leaving us hot ! Rain chances will be lower by Saturday and Sunday, and this is good news for outdoor events like the Blue Angels. Daytime highs will be in the low to mid 90’s, and overnight lows will work their way back up into the low to mid 70’s. The tropics are quiet.
Long range models hint at the idea of another front arriving late next week. This should bring back scattered t-storms and perhaps slight lower temps by Thursday and Friday.