The Storm Prediction Center has placed the inland sections of our area, primarily north and west of Mobile, in the slight risk category for severe weather early Friday morning. A strong squall line will advance into our area starting around 4am Friday. The risk is primarily for t-storm winds and not tornadoes or hail. George, Greene, Washington and Clarke are the counties most likely to be affected. The storms will impact Mobile by daybreak, but the severe weather threat will be lower as the system moves east. Lighter rains should linger behind the front on Friday. Temperatures will also be a great deal cooler throughout the day.

A surface cold front will finally approach our area from the west late Thursday night. This boundary will be the focus for a big severe weather event in Oklahoma and Kansas, and then transition to the mid Mississippi River Valley. The potential for widespread severe weather is much lower here in our area. We do expect a line of storms, but the overall instability will be lower late Thursday/early Friday. The threat is primarily for severe t-storms for us, mainly over the western half of the area. The storms will weaken as they track through our area in the predawn hours Friday morning. We expect a band of rain, with most areas receiving about .75.” Lower humidity and cooler temperatures will arrive for the weekend.

An upper disturbance moves in from the west and combines with an approaching warm front to give the Gulf Coast a good soaking on this Sunday. There is also a low risk for severe weather, especially for the Florida Panhandle. A Tornado Watch is in effect for Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties until 6pm. Heavy rains are also anticipated. A general 2″-4″ rain event is expected along the I-10 corridor. There is also a Flash Flood Watch in effect for the coastal counties through this evening. Rain chances do decrease quite a bit for tonight and Monday. I will have a full update on the forecast for next week on Fox Ten News at 9pm.

A long squall line stretches through western Alabama all the way to the Mississippi Coast this afternoon. We are seeing strong storms in our area, with the main threat being straight line winds. An isolated tornado is possible. So far, we have no reports of significant damage in our area. The main line should be in the Mobile area around 5pm and closer to Pensacola by 7pm. Things will clear out quickly late this evening.

Humid, warm, and windy will be the key words for our Wednesday forecast. Highs will top out around 80 and there’s a slight chance (20%) of a shower later in the day.

A cold front will be headed our way Thursday. It will bring rain to our area throughout the day, with a line of storms with the actually front late in the afternoon. We have a slight risk of severe weather with that line of storms, but the conditions are marginal, so widespread severe weather is unlikely.

After the front passes it will be slightly cooler, and perhaps more importantly, less humid for the upcoming weekend!

Weather Summary:

Really just gorgeous weather over the next several days! Temps will gradually rise, but we will stay within springtime normals for this time off year.

So here’s the deal with the highs; Sunday will bring us mid 70s, Monday will bring upper 70s, and Tuesday through Thursday we will top out right at 80 degrees.

As far as the lows are concerned, Sunday will likely be the only morning we have widespread 50s. The rest of the week will start in the low 60s.

We will see a very slight cool off for next weekend after a system moves through on Thursday.

Thursday’s System:

On Thursday a cold front will be moving through the area. Right now the models aren’t trending towards anything severe as the strongest energy will likely stay to our north, but a decent rain event is certainly likely. With only an isolated shower possible out in front of this system on Wednesday it’s possible that Thursday will be the only day of the week we get rain.

All-in-all I would call that a pretty good springtime forecast! Get out and enjoy it!

We are currently under a high wind warning across much of our area. A unique atmospheric phenomenon called a wake low is creating very gusty winds. We expect winds sustained near 40mph, with gusts to near 60mph. The winds will last for about an hour. A wake low, also called a wake depression, is a compact low-pressure area following a squall line.^. Due to the subsiding warm air associated with the systems formation, clearing skies are associated with the wake low.

The rain is expected to return to the Gulf Coast on Wednesday. A warm front will hang just offshore through the day. We dont expect strong storms, but significant showers are likely. A few rumbles of thunder are possible Wednesday night and Thursday as the surface low tracks closer to the area. Rain totals near 2″ are expected closer to the coast, with 1″ amounts expected in the inland locations. Things should clear out by Thursday evening. Friday and the weekend look much better!

Extremely dry air is tracking into the forecast area this evening. Strong high pressure is building into the region from Canada and the Central Plains. The current dewpoints are in the teens. This is very unusual for us. Mobile is one of the nations wettest cities, so we usually have a decent amount of moisture in place. These are the afternoon relative humidity values as of 5pm. The weather pattern is expected to stay very dry through the weekend. We will also get to enjoy a warming trend.

On my way back home from downtown Mobile this afternoon, I decided to take a closer look at some of the damage caused by the Christmas EF-2 tornado.  I put my iPhone5 into a suction-mount on the windshield, and took a very short drive on South Carlen to Dauphin to North Carlen to Old Shell and back to Dauphin.  It’s not meant to be a comprehensive look at all the damage caused, just a taste of it.

I’m still amazed by the power of nature.  Some homes were fine while others look like they were destroyed by dynamite. Click on the link to watch the video…

Tornado aftermath