Tropical Depression Ida is currently moving off the Honduran Coast and back into the Caribbean Sea. This system will likely strengthen to Tropical Storm status and track into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Upper wind shear should keep Ida from becoming a hurricane. We expect Ida to become non tropical as it merges with a frontal zone on Tuesday, over the central Gulf. The system should head eastward towards Florida by Wednesday.

We don’t expect any major impacts here, other than a good bit of rain on Tuesday. Tides may also be 1-2 feet above normal on Monday and Tuesday mornings, affecting the Causeway, the West End of Dauphin Island, and other low coastal areas. It will also be rather breezy Mon-Wed as the pressure gradient tightens.

Tropical Depression Ida

The month of November is typically quiet in the tropics for number of reasons. The upper level winds become more hostile, keeping systems form forming. Water temperatures begin to fall below 82 degrees over much of the Atlantic Basin. And we see more dry air that can inhibit warm cored systems. Despite all of this, we have Ida.

Ida was briefly a hurricane this morning but is now rapidly weakening as a depression over eastern Nicaragua. The system will remain over land for the next 24 hours and will continue to weaken. It is possible that Ida will regenerate into a Tropical Storm in the Northwest Caribbean Sea on Saturday as it lifts northward. Water temperatures are near 84 degrees, plenty warm to support a tropical cyclone. However, the long period of time on land may disrupt the inner mechanics of this system.

Also, Ida would have to deal with moderate southwesterly wind shear in the northwest Caribbean. If the system defies climatology and is not picked up by the westerlies by mid week, you will find it reassuring to know that the water temps in the northern Gulf are below 80 degrees and an approaching system would weaken as it approached our area.

So there is plenty reason for us not to be worried about Ida. Here’s the bottom line. We could see tides above normal due to the pressure gradient involving low pressure in the S’west Gulf and Ida, and a strong ridge off North Carolina by Monday. We also could get quite a bit of rain next week. But, I do not expect a significant tropical system making landfall here with this situation.

In this case, BEST stands for Boosting Engineering, Science and Technology, and “Game Day” is Saturday at Davidson High School in Mobile.  You’re invited.

Starting at 9 a.m. in the Davidson gym, robots built by teams of students will fact off in a competition that’s a lot of fun to watch.  Each school basically receives a box of parts and instructions to design a robot that will perform certain tasks.  The rest is up to the imagination of the students.

25 schools have been working for months to get ready, and you can bet they will bring teams of cheerleaders, parents and supporters to cheer them on!

I’ve been asked, once again, to help present the trophies and prizes to the winning teams at the end of the day.  Join us!

The Tide is off, but there is still some good games this weekend, so put up the fishing poll and check out these match-ups…

 Auburn vs. Ole Miss(25)   Auburn, AL 11:20am

 These are two teams going through a mid-season slump. Auburn briefly reached the top 25 before falling out and Ole Miss is clinging to the last spot in the poll. It’s very unlikely either of these teams will catch up with LSU or ‘Bama and win the west, so this is a battle for bowl position. If you’re going to the game it will be wet. Bring a poncho because there is a 70% chance of rain and storms with temps in the low 60s.

 Florida(1) vs. Georgia   Jacksonville, FL 2:30pm

 It’s the big ol’ cocktail party in J-ville… Growing up in Jacksonville I can tell you this is big-time rivalry. If Florida doesn’t take care of business the Dawgs will take a big bite of Gator meat, possibly killing their National Championship hopes. I know who Tide fans will be pulling for… Weather at game time will be just plain hot. Temps will be in the mid 80s under partly cloudy skies.

 South Alabama vs. Fork Union Military Acad.   Mobile, AL 4pm

 The 4-0 Jags are hosting another victim this weekend. This time it’s the Blue Devils of Fork Union Military Academy. Weather shouldn’t be a big issue, but it’s possible there could be some light drizzles and it will likely be fairly windy.  Temps will be in the mid 60s dropping into the 50s by game’s end.

 USC(5) @ Oregon(10)    Eugene, OR  7:00pm

 This is definitely the big game of the weekend. While you’re holding down the house and passing out the candy this will be a good one to watch. Weather at game time will be cool and damp with temps in the upper 40s and scattered showers in Eugene.

I was reading a great article in this morning’s New York Times about David Bronner, the financial genius who runs Retirement Systems of Alabama, and made me think of a conversation I had this month while visiting in Chicago.

I was staying at a Passionist monastery on Harlem Avenue, helping to plan a conference to be held at Loyola in 2011, when I met one of the Brothers who lives there.  We got to talking during breakfast and he asked where I was living.  When I told him, he looked at me and said, “Do you know David Bronner?”.  I laughed and said I knew of him, that practically everyone in the state did.  It turns out this Brother was a classmate of Bronner, and said he still talked with Bronner about once a month.  Small world…

Well, not really, but I did think of Fugitive Files when I took a few days off to visit San Francisco, pay a visit to Alcatraz Island, and spend time in Berkeley to see a daughter and son-in-law.

There is only one match up between two ranked teams this weekend… #8 TCU vs. #16 BYU… Not exactly a big game weekend. But, there are some tough SEC battles.

Alabama (2) vs. Tennessee    Tuscaloosa, AL 2:30 pm

 See that 2 next to ‘Bama? That’s what the computers think. The voters of flesh and blood rank the Tide #1. Playing the Vols this weekend can’t help the ranking only hurt it, so a win here is vital for Alabama. If you’re going to Tuscaloosa the weather will be wonderful, upper 60s and partly cloudy skies!

 Auburn @ LSU (9)    Baton Rouge, LA 6:30 pm         

 It’s a cat fight in the swamp! After last weeks devastating loss to Kentucky, Auburn needs a big win to stay relevant… and this would be a big win if they can pull it off. LSU is tough but flawed on the offensive side of the ball and possibly ripe for an upset. We’ll see. Weather will be nice at game time with mild temps in the low 60s and clear skies.

 Florida (1) @ Mississippi State    Starkville, MS 6:30 pm

 What the Bulldogs have going for them… they’re at home. What they don’t having going for them… they’re playing the Gators. At least the weather will be nice in Starkville with temps in the upper 50s and clear skies.

 Ole Miss vs. Arkansas    Oxford, MS 11:20 am

 No rankings here, just an excuse to spend a beautiful fall morning tailgating on The Grove. Temps will be in the low 50s to start rising into the mid 60s during the game.

Alabama(2) vs. South Carolina(22)    6:45pm Tuscaloosa, AL

 Taking on the 22^nd team in the nation for homecoming? Well, you can’t call the Tide soft. Remember the first BCS poll will come out this Sunday. A good showing here and it’s possible that ‘Bama could leap over Florida regardless of how they fare against Arkansas. First though they have to take care of business against the Gamecocks. Are you going to this game? If you do, bring a jacket. This evening game will start with temps in the mid 50s that will drop into the 40s by the second half.

Auburn vs. Kentucky    6:30pm Auburn, Al

 The War Eagles had to go 5-0 to make it into the top 25, now they’ll have to beat the Wildcats handily to regain the respect of voters after losing to the Hogs last week. Like the ‘Bama game, this is an evening contest which will mean some cool temps. At the start of the game it will be in the low 50s and those temps will drop into the 40s during the second half.

 South Alabama vs. Louisburg, JC    4:00pm Mobile, AL

 South is 3-0 and dominating every team that comes down to the Port City. This week they take on the Hurricanes… Not those ‘Canes, the Louisburg Junior College Hurricanes. Should be another fun game and the weather is perfect for tailgating! There will be a light north breeze with temps at the start of the game in the mid 60s dropping into the mid 50s during the second half.

  Texas(3) vs. Oklahoma(20)    11:00am Dallas, TX

 Okay, this isn’t a local game… but c’mon this is the Red River Rivalry, McCoy vs. Bradford with a nation title on the line for the Longhorns. If you’re a fan of college football this is a game worth watching. At game time the temps will be in the upper 50s with partly cloudy skies.

Alabama(3) @ Ole Miss(20)  2:30pm

 ‘Bama is going to The Grove! Of course the Tide is a big favorite but if they sleep on Jevan Snead and the Rebels anything could happen in Oxford. At game time, it will be cloudy with temps in the upper 50s and only a slight chance of showers.

 Auburn(17) @ Arkansas  11:00am

 Finally, undefeated Auburn is in the Top 25! Their first test as a ranked team… the Hogs in Fayetteville. Can the Tigers keep the Razorbacks winless in SEC play? At game time, it will be sunny and cool with temps in the upper 40s.

 South Alabama vs. Georgia Military JC  11:30am

 Who knew South would be this good? They beat their first two opponents by a combined score of 86-13. This week they take on the Georgia Military Bulldogs in Mobile. They may be just a junior college, but they have a resume which includes a NJCAA Championship in 2001, and runners-up in 2002 and 2005. At game time, rain is likely with warm temps near 80 degrees. Bring a poncho!

 LSU(4) vs. Florida(1)  7:00pm

 This is the big ‘un! Is LSU for real? Is Tebow one hundred percent? If you’re a Tide fan that hates both these teams you know you’re still going to watch! This is SEC football at it’s best! At game time, rain is likely with temps in the mid 70s.

Do you have any predictions? Who comes out on top in these games?

I had the pleasure of hosting the Miss AWAG (Area Women’s Action Group) 2009 Beauty Pageant. The event was held at Faulkner State Community College on September 26th.

Congratulations to this year’s winner, Ms. Erin Patterson!

She’s a senior at Daphne High School, with an amazing voice.  Patterson says she plans to study Theatre Arts when she goes to college. 

This was my second year hosting the pageant.  It’s really neat event!  Not that I’m biased… BUT having competed in pageants before, I can’t stress the importance of pageantry enough.

The competitions help with self confidence, finding a platform to speak your mind and they also promote community service.

AWAG contestants were judged on talent and performing arts, evening wear and their knowledge of current events.  For example this year, the girls were asked to share their thoughts on the controversy that stemmed from President Obama’s decision to speak to students during school.

Despite dwindling financial support, pageant organizers of the pageant are able to provide winners a scholarship to Faulkner State, as well as cash prizes.

I have to give a personal thank you to Ethel Higgins for inviting me out.